Heavy precipitation induced by a typhoon often causes a severe disaster. In this study, we aim to propose a statistical method to project extreme precipitation caused by typhoons in the future. Our method is a combination of a stochastic typhoon model, statistical precipitation analysis, climate model outputs, and a physical basis for changes in precipitation. Our method was applied to the Kagami river basin of Kochi. While the number of typhoon approaching Kochi is projected to slightly decrease or unchanged, 2-day extreme precipitation induced by typhoon is projected to increase in the last twenty first century (2081-2100). The projected values are widely different according to a method to estimate changes in precipitation. We also estimated the future return period of heavy rainfall causing the largest recorded flood of the Kagami River.
Typhoons are anticipated to cause more severe damage in the future, thus TCs risk assessment have an important role in decision making for risk reduction. Although several typhoon risk assessment models were developed, these models were scarcely compared and their characteristics were also scarcely discussed. In this study, we tested three typhoon risk assessment models and compared their characteristics. Two models were from existing studies and one model was newly developed based on these two models. We assessed economic loss focusing on 25 years from 1985 to 2009, at four countries in Western North pacific: China, Japan, South Korea and Viet Nam. Furthermore, we estimated economic loss by typhoon at 2035 with and without climate change. Characteristics and trend of typhoon risk from present to future differed by models due to different model structures.
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