Even early in the COVID-19 pandemic, adherence to physical distancing measures was variable, exposing some communities to elevated risk. While cognitive factors from the Health Belief Model (HBM) and resilience correlate with compliance with physical distancing, external conditions may preclude full compliance with physical distancing guidelines. Our objective was to identify HBM and resilience constructs that could be used to improve adherence to physical distancing even when full compliance is not possible. We examined adherence as expressed through 7-day non-work, non-household contact rates in two cohorts: 1) adults in households with children from Minnesota and Iowa; and 2) adults ≥50 years-old from Minnesota, one-third of whom had Parkinson’s disease. We identified multiple cognitive factors associated with physical distancing adherence, specifically perceived severity, benefits, self-efficacy, and barriers. However, the magnitude, and occasionally the direction, of these associations was population-dependent. In Cohort 1, perceived self-efficacy for remaining 6-feet from others was associated with a 29% lower contact rate (RR 0.71; 95% CI 0.65, 0.77). This finding was consistent across all race/ethnicity and income groups we examined. The barriers to adherence of having a child in childcare and having financial concerns had the largest effects among individuals from marginalized racial and ethnic groups and high-income households. In Cohort 2, self-efficacy to quarantine/isolate was associated with a 23% decrease in contacts (RR 0.77; 95% CI 0.66, 0.89), but upon stratification by education level, the association was only present for those with at least a Bachelor’s degree. Education also modified the effect of the barrier to adherence leaving home for work, increasing contacts among those with a Bachelor’s degree and reducing contacts among those without. Our findings suggest that public health messaging tailored to the identified cognitive factors has the potential to improve physical distancing adherence, but population-specific needs must be considered to maximize effectiveness.

Pandemic fatigue emerged early during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains a concern as new variants emerge and ongoing public health measures are needed to control them. A wide range of factors can affect pandemic fatigue, but empiric research indicating which may be most important to adherence in specific populations is lacking. Here we report results from a longitudinal study of physical distancing, in which we found that changes in contact rates over time differed according to several sociodemographic characteristics. Meaningful effects emerged along lines of age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, household composition, and access to transportation. Furthermore, the factors influencing the rate of change in contact rates differed by the type or setting of the contact, for example contacts as a result of visiting another person’s home versus during a retail outing. These results provide evidence for potential mechanisms by which pandemic fatigue has resulted in lower physical distancing adherence.