The design of adaptation strategies that promote urban health and well-being in the face of climate change requires an understanding of the feedback interactions that take place between the dynamical state of a city, the health of its people, and the state of the planet. Complexity, contingency and uncertainty combine to impede the growth of such systemic understandings. In this paper we suggest that the collaborative development of conceptual models can help a group to identify potential leverage points for effective adaptation. We describe a three-step procedure that leads from the development of a high-level system template, through the selection of a problem space that contains one or more of the group’s adaptive challenges, to a specific conceptual model of a sub-system of importance to the group. This procedure is illustrated by a case study of urban dwellers’ maladaptive dependence on private motor vehicles. We conclude that a system dynamics approach, revolving around the collaborative construction of a set of conceptual models, can help communities to improve their adaptive capacity, and so better meet the challenge of maintaining, and even improving, urban health in the face of climate change.

Knowledge that has been developed through extensive experience of receiving and responding to ecological feedback is particularly valuable for informing and guiding environmental management. This paper captures the implicit understanding of seven experienced on-ground conservation managers about the conservation issues affecting the Ramsar listed Macquarie Marshes in New South Wales, Australia. Multiple interviews, a workshop, and meetings were used to elicit the manager's knowledge. The managers suggest that the Macquarie Marshes are seriously threatened by a lack of water, and immediate steps need to be taken to achieve more effective water delivery. Their knowledge and perceptions of the wider societal impediments to achieving more effective water delivery have also led the managers to suggest that there may be system feedbacks that are reinforcing the tendency for water agencies to favor the short-term interests of the irrigation industry. Although the managers clearly have certain personal interests that influence their understanding and perceptions, much of their knowledge also appears to have been heavily influenced by their ecological understanding of the wetland's dynamics. This paper highlights that although all stakeholders clearly need to be involved in making decisions about conservation and how resources should be used, such decisions should not be confused with the need for consulting people with the appropriate ecological expertise to help determine the degree to which an ecological system is threatened, the likely ecological causes of the threats, and actions that may be needed to restore and maintain a functional ecosystem.

It is likely that the obesity epidemic is a 'systems effect'. That is, there are good reasons to believe that it has emerged from interactions between the variables that characterise human physiology and psychology, and those that characterise urban environments. 1,2 Interactions of this kind are dominant in such human-urban systems and can give rise to unexpected and unwanted policy outcomes. 3 In these circumstances it is not useful to look for the main cause of a management problem. Instead it is necessary to develop hypotheses about significant causal links between key system variables. In particular, it is necessary to move beyond thinking in terms of 'causal chains' to develop an ability to see 'causal loops'.Causal loops are prevalent in complex systems and give rise to 'feedback' behaviour, where the effects of a change act to amplify or oppose the original change. Feedback can generate stubborn management problems. To attack such problems, managers and policy makers must have ways to (a) investigate the causal structure of complex systems, (b) identify possible feedback mechanisms and the behaviours they drive, and (c) identify 'leverage points' where Seeing obesity as a systems problemAbstract: Obesity has reached epidemic proportions in many countries and persists despite continuing efforts to find solutions. Such 'stubborn problems' often signal the influence of 'feedback systems'. In the case of the obesity epidemic, this possibility can be investigated using available system analysis tools. The investigation must begin with a study of the interplay between the full range of human and environmental factors. This paper outlines the nature of feedback and briefly discusses some of its management implications. A practical way to initiate a 'systems approach' to the obesity problem is suggested and four principles to guide the management of complex humanenvironment systems are presented. pressure on selected system variables (or the severing of selected causal links) will produce the desired outcomes. These are the elements of a 'systems approach'. Barry Newell

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Age-Friendly Cities (AFC) is a framework for promoting healthy ageing through local actions. We use systems thinking to assess potential outcomes of actions to support older people’s mobility, undertaken within an AFC commitment in Greater Sydney. Interviews with 20 informants involved in providing space, infrastructure, or services that affect how older people get around were analysed using causal loop diagrams (CLDs). Four approaches to support older people’s mobility were identified and situated to the Multiple Governance Framework: land use, open and public space, supplementary transport, and community transport. Analysis revealed potential for unwanted consequences associated with each, which can be generalised into three generic potential outcomes for other jurisdictions to consider. A recommendation from this research is for policy actors to examine feedback interactions between actions so that they can foresee a wider range of outcomes and take defensive action against those unwanted. By situating CLDs within the Multiple Governance Framework, this research not only identifies what to look for, in terms of potential outcomes, but also where to look, in terms of the level of decision-making. This research offers a new way to assess the functioning of AFC governance networks by their collective outcomes and challenges the standards for the evaluation of AFC.

A move towards more compact and climate-resilient cities is being encouraged around the world. As part of these plans, there is a need to manage the potential conflict between increasing urban densities and the extent of tree canopy in cities. Reductions in tree canopy are a major contributor to the urban heat island (UHI) effect, which will act to reduce rather than increase climate resilience in many cities. A systems thinking approach called Collaborative Conceptual Modelling was used to study the interaction between urban infill, tree canopy, and human health in Perth, Australia. The results indicated that under current planning policies and development practices, the behaviour of the system is dominated by the drive towards higher housing densities. While this may result in the attainment of urban infill targets, it is likely to lead to a reduction in tree canopy, higher temperatures, and a decrease in a range of other benefits provided by trees. Recommended actions to overcome this behaviour were determined by the identification of leverage points in the system. These included a shift to a sustainable development paradigm that places greater value on the environmental and social benefits provided by trees and a greater emphasis on a climate-resilient future. Market and legislative mechanisms should be integrated into the city’s greening strategy and development plans to ensure the protection of existing trees and the inclusion of new trees on public and private land.

Extreme events, both natural and anthropogenic, increasingly affect cities in terms of economic losses and impacts on health and well-being. Most people now live in cities, and Asian cities, in particular, are experiencing growth on unprecedented scales. Meanwhile, the economic and health consequences of climate-related events are worsening, a trend projected to continue. Urbanization, climate change and other geophysical and social forces interact with urban systems in ways that give rise to complex and in many cases synergistic relationships. Such effects may be mediated by location, scale, density, or connectivity, and also involve feedbacks and cascading outcomes. In this context, traditional, siloed, reductionist approaches to understanding and dealing with extreme events are unlikely to be adequate. Systems approaches to mitigation, management and response for extreme events offer a more effective way forward. Well-managed urban systems can decrease risk and increase resilience in the face of such events.