Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. www.econstor.eu The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. Terms of use: Documents in D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E SIZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. Many start-ups chose to compete with incumbent firms using one of two generic strategies: cost leadership or differentiation. Our study demonstrates how this choice depends on whether the startup was founded out of necessity. Our results, based on a representative data set of 4,568 German start-ups, show that necessity entrepreneurs are more likely than other entrepreneurs to pursue a cost leadership strategy, and less likely to pursue a differentiation strategy. Decomposition analyses further show that up to half of the difference in choice of strategy can be attributed to distinct endowments of human capital, socioeconomic attributes, and start-up project characteristics that correlate with necessity entrepreneurship.JEL Classification: L10, L26

Die Discussion Papers dienen einer möglichst schnellen Verbreitung von neueren Forschungsarbeiten des ZEW. Die Beiträge liegen in alleiniger Verantwortung der Autoren und stellen nicht notwendigerweise die Meinung des ZEW dar.Discussion Papers are intended to make results of ZEW research promptly available to other economists in order to encourage discussion and suggestions for revisions. The authors are solely responsible for the contents which do not necessarily represent the opinion of the ZEW.Download this ZEW Discussion Paper from our ftp server:ftp://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp0319.pdf (ii) Do the reaction functions show differences in the monetary policy behavior of the Fed and the ECB? Non-technical summary(iii) Is there an interdependence between the reaction functions of the two central banks?We will estimate Taylor-type policy rules with data on a monthly basis for the ECB and the Fed in order to find answers to these questions. Reaction functions for the time before monetary union from 1995:1 to 1998:12 and for the time from 1999:1 to 2002:8 are analyzed for the Euro area and for the Fed. The reaction functions are compared between the two currency areas and the two time periods. Furthermore, the usual reaction of the interest rate to inflation and the output gap is complemented by additional variables: money growth, exchange rate change and the interest rate of the other currency area. The foreign interest rate is included because there are reasons for a mutual influence like an implicit policy coordination or an international transmission mechanism.The estimations show that there are significant differences in the reaction functions of both central banks before and after 1999 and between the two central banks. Because of the limited data available the conclusions must be treated with caution. Nonetheless, for the Euro one of the main findings is a break in the interest rate reaction to inflation with the beginning of the monetary union. Before monetary union, there is a strong reaction of the average interest rate to inflation with a long-run coefficient that exceeds unity. After January 1999 the coefficient falls below unity. Before 1999 we find it difficult to track the behavior of the Fed with a Taylor-type reaction function using our data. After 1999 the Fed seems to attach importance to money growth in setting the interest rates. Our results also suggest that the Fed's policy has an impact on the Euro area policy, especially after 1999. On the other hand, the short-term interest rate of the Euro area is not significant in the reaction function of the Fed. We compare the currency areas by searching for similarities and distinctions between the Taylor-type reaction functions of the two central banks. We pay particular attention to the possible influence of one central bank on the behavior of the other one. The simplest method to test this interdependence is to compare the two reaction functions and try to incorporate the decision variable of one central bank into the other central bank's react...

Puumala virus (PUUV) is the cause of the majority of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome cases in Germany. In 2004, a nephropathia epidemica outbreak was recorded in Lower Bavaria, South-East Germany. For a seroepidemiological study in this region including the resident population at four locations (n = 178) and soldiers from one location (n = 208) indirect immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and immunoblot tests based on a yeast-expressed PUUV nucleocapsid protein were established. The validation using human serum panels originating from Germany revealed a diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of 98/100% for the IgM ELISA, 99/99% for the IgG ELISA, 99/100% for the IgM immunoblot test and 100/96% for the IgG immunoblot test. Using the novel IgG assays as well as a commercial IgG ELISA and an immunofluorescence assay for the resident population an average prevalence of 6.7% (12 of 178) with a range of 0% (0 of 21) to 11.9% (7 of 59) was observed. Positive serological results were equally distributed between males and females with an average age of 63 for males and 52 for females. The seroprevalence in the soldier group was found to be about 1% with one positive male of 203 (age 46 years) and one positive female of five (age 47 years). In conclusion, the PUUV seroprevalence in the residents of the outbreak region in Lower Bavaria was found to be up to fivefold higher than the average hantavirus seroprevalence of the German population.

Die Discussion Papers dienen einer möglichst schnellen Verbreitung von neueren Forschungsarbeiten des ZEW. Die Beiträge liegen in alleiniger Verantwortung der Autoren und stellen nicht notwendigerweise die Meinung des ZEW dar.Discussion Papers are intended to make results of ZEW research promptly available to other economists in order to encourage discussion and suggestions for revisions. The authors are solely responsible for the contents which do not necessarily represent the opinion of the ZEW.Download this ZEW Discussion Paper from our ftp server:ftp://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp0570.pdf In the empirical analysis, we employ a monetary reaction function extended by the wording indicator. Our results indicate that the decoding of rhetoric signals is useful because wording includes information helpful to improve the explanation of interest rate decision based on standard explanatory models. This result is confirmed on the basis of out of sample analysis where the period on which the wording indicator's choice of weights is based is not included in testing this indicator's significance. We conclude that ECB wording has an information content which cannot fully be replicated by Taylor type regressions. But simple decoding of central bankers' messages cannot substitute a more thorough analysis of economic data. Our findings indicate that judgements based solely on analysing central bankers' speeches are inferior to more refined approaches based on models and economic data. Non-Technical Summary Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers' Lips? The Information Content of ECB WordingFriedrich Heinemann and Katrin Ullrich Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim Revised version September 2005 AbstractIn this analysis, the informational content of central bank rhetoric is assessed based on the experience with the ECB since 1999. Among the ECB's communication channels we focus on the monthly press conferences. Based on a counting of certain signal words we construct a wording indicator reflecting the "hawkishness" of monetary rhetorics. For the construction, we develop an objective algorithm representing a learning process of ECB observers. We then integrate this indicator into a standard Taylor type ordered probit model for the explanation of the interest rate. We show that the wording indicator can improve the model's fit when added to the standard explanatory variables. However, a model based solely on this indicator performs worse than the baseline. The results are confirmed by out of sample analysis where the determination of the wording indicators' weights is based on the early ECB period which, subsequently, is excluded from the tests. Our conclusion is that linguistic analysis can improve but not substitute more rigorous forecasting techniques based on hard economic data.

Summary In this analysis, the informational content of central bank rhetoric is assessed based on the experience with the ECB since 1999. Among the ECB’s communication channels we focus on the monthly press conferences. Based on a counting of certain signal words we construct a wording indicator reflecting the “hawk-ishness” of monetary rhetorics. For the construction, we develop an objective algorithm. We then integrate this indicator into a standard Taylor type ordered probit model for the explanation of the interest rate. We show that the wording indicator can improve the model’s fit when added to the standard explanatory variables. However, a model based solely on this indicator performs worse than the baseline. The results are confirmed by an out of sample analysis where the determination of the wording indicators’ weights is based on the early ECB period which, subsequently, is excluded from the tests. Our conclusion is that linguistic analysis can improve but not substitute more rigorous forecasting techniques based on hard economic data.