This paper contributes to the lack of research on refugee journeys by examining the factors influencing Afghan refugees plans to stay in Greece or Turkey or migrate onwards as a continuation of their fragmented refugee journeys. Following from the seminal article of BenEzer and Zetter (2015) this paper examines the four conceptual challenges of refugee journeys of: temporal elements, drivers and destinations, the process of the journey and the wayfarers characteristics. Using a quantitative approach with a unique original dataset of 364 Afghans in Greece and Turkey, regression analysis is used to examine the decision making of Afghans to stay or migrate onwards within the context of the four conceptual challenges of refugee journeys. The results show that all the conceptual elements are significant in influencing Afghan decision making for the continuation of their refugee journeys. The paper further contextualizes these results and highlights policy implications.
Limited research has been conducted on migrants' decision making factors in transit and this is an important area of investigation that goes beyond the origin-destination country dichotomy most commonly represented in migrant decision making. This paper examines the decision making factors for onwards migration or stay of migrants from Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria in Greece and Turkey. This paper is based on a unique dataset of surveys collected with 1056 migrants in Athens and Istanbul from May-July 2015. The decision for onwards migration or stay is examined through a probit regression analysis. Four categories of influencing variables are discussed: the country of origin, current conditions in the transit country, the initial migration destination choice and previous onwards migration attempts. The results demonstrate that first; the majority of respondents in both countries seek to migrate onwards (75% in Greece and 63% in Turkey) and that conditions in the transit country are highly significant in influencing onwards migrate decisions including their current subjective living conditions, employment, experiences of abuse, and speaking the local language. This paper contextualizes the findings and highlight the complexity of factors influencing migrants' decision making in Greece and Turkey.
ARTICLE HISTORY
Assisted voluntary return is a central component of many countries managed migration policies. Within these programmes achieving a sustainable return is a common policy goal, which is often measured through remigration. In this paper, it is argued that remigration is not a valid indicator to measure sustainable return. A new definition and approach to defining and measuring sustainable return is presented based on a multidimensional return and reintegration index, which is tested with a sample of 118 returnees in six countries. Due to small sample size a chi‐square test is used to examine the correlation between the return and reintegration index and remigration intentions. The results demonstrate the relationship between having a concrete remigration plan and the return and reintegration index is insignificant. This relationship between remigration and sustainable return is further interrogated throughout the paper.
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