This study compares samples of publicly and privately held bank holding companies to examine whether the high frequency of small earnings increases relative to small earnings decreases reported by public firms is attributable to earnings management. We expect public banks' shareholders to be more likely than private banks' shareholders to rely on simple earnings-based heuristics in evaluating firm performance, so we expect public banks to have more incentives to report steadily increasing earnings. Consistent with this expectation, we find that relative to private banks, public banks: (1) report fewer small earnings declines, (2) are more likely to use the loan loss provision and security gain realizations to eliminate small earnings decreases, and (3) report longer strings of consecutive earnings increases. These results suggest that the asymmetric pattern of more small earnings increases than decreases, first documented by Burgstahler and Dichev (1997), is attributable to earnings management and is not simply a reflection of the underlying distribution of earnings changes.

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We examine whether transient institutional investors (i.e., institutions that trade actively to maximize short-term profits) have information that allows them to predict a break in a string of consecutive quarterly earnings increases and thereby avoid the economically significant negative stock price response associated with the break announcement. We show that transient institutions predict the break at least one quarter in advance of the break quarter. We also provide evidence that is consistent with transient institutions obtaining information regarding the impending break from private communications with management. Copyright University of Chicago on behalf of the Institute of Professional Accounting, 2004.

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