A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculated using measured shear-wave velocity profiles.

No abstract

Southernmost Africa, with extensive upland geomorphic surfaces, deep canyons, and numerous faults, has long interested geoscientists. A paucity of dates and low rates of background seismicity make it challenging to quantify the pace of landscape change and determine the likelihood and timing of fault movement that could raise and lower parts of the landscape and create associated geohazards. To infer regional rates of denudation, we measured 10 Be in river sediment samples and found that south-central South Africa is eroding ~5 m m.y. −1 , a slow erosion rate consistent with those measured in other non-tectonically active areas, including much of southern Africa. To estimate the rate at which extensive, fossil, upland, silcrete-mantled pediment surfaces erode, we measured 10 Be and 26 Al in exposed quartzite samples. Undeformed upland surfaces are little changed since the Pliocene; some have minimum exposure ages exceeding 2.5 m.y. (median, 1.3 m.y.) and maximum erosion rates of <0.2 m m.y. −1 (median, 0.34 m m.y. −1), consistent with no Quaternary movement on faults that displace the underlying quartzite but not the silcrete cover. We directly dated a recent displacement event on the only recognized Quaternary-active fault in South Africa, a fault that displaces both silcrete and the underlying quartzite. The concentrations of 10 Be in exposed fault scarp samples are consistent with a 1.5 m displacement occurring ca. 25 ka. Samples from this offset upland surface have lower minimum limiting exposure ages and higher maximum erosion rates than those from undeformed pediment surfaces, consistent with Pleistocene earthquakes and deformation reducing overall landscape stability proximal to the fault zone. Rates of landscape change on the extensive, stable, silcretized, upland pediment surfaces are an order of magnitude lower than basin-average erosion rates. As isostatic response to regional denudation uplifts the entire landscape at several meters per million years, valleys deepen, isolating stable upland surfaces and creating the spectacular relief for which the region is known.

No abstract

you may electronically access NUREG-series publications and other NRC records at NRC=s Public Electronic Reading Room at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm.html. Publicly released records include, to name a few, NUREG-series publications; Federal Register notices; applicant, licensee, and vendor documents and correspondence; NRC correspondence and internal memoranda; bulletins and information notices; inspection and investigative reports; licensee event reports; and Commission papers and their attachments.NRC publications in the NUREG series, NRC regulations, and Title 10, Energy, in the Code of Federal Regulations may also be purchased from one of these two sources.