ObjectivesTo estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer care services and overall (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer.MethodsWe employed near real-time weekly data on cancer care to determine the adverse effect of the pandemic on cancer services. We also used these data, together with national death registrations until June 2020 to model deaths, in excess of background (pre-COVID-19) mortality, in people with cancer. Background mortality risks for 24 cancers with and without COVID-19-relevant comorbidities were obtained from population-based primary care cohort (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) on 3 862 012 adults in England.ResultsDeclines in urgent referrals (median=−70.4%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=−41.5%) to a nadir (lowest point) in the pandemic were observed. By 31 May, these declines have only partially recovered; urgent referrals (median=−44.5%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=−31.2%). There were short-term excess death registrations for cancer (without COVID-19), with peak relative risk (RR) of 1.17 at week ending on 3 April. The peak RR for all-cause deaths was 2.1 from week ending on 17 April. Based on these findings and recent literature, we modelled 40% and 80% of cancer patients being affected by the pandemic in the long-term. At 40% affected, we estimated 1-year total (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer as between 7165 and 17 910, using RRs of 1.2 and 1.5, respectively, where 78% of excess deaths occured in patients with ≥1 comorbidity.ConclusionsDramatic reductions were detected in the demand for, and supply of, cancer services which have not fully recovered with lockdown easing. These may contribute, over a 1-year time horizon, to substantial excess mortality among people with cancer and multimorbidity. It is urgent to understand how the recovery of general practitioner, oncology and other hospital services might best mitigate these long-term excess mortality risks.

Background: Cancer and multiple non-cancer conditions are considered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as high risk conditions in the COVID-19 emergency. Professional societies have recommended changes in cancer service provision to minimize COVID-19 risks to cancer patients and health care workers. However, we do not know the extent to which cancer patients, in whom multi-morbidity is common, may be at higher overall risk of mortality as a net result of multiple factors including COVID-19 infection, changes in health services, and socioeconomic factors. Methods: We report multi-center, weekly cancer diagnostic referrals and chemotherapy treatments until April 2020 in England and Northern Ireland. We analyzed population-based health records from 3,862,012 adults in England to estimate 1-year mortality in 24 cancer sites and 15 non-cancer comorbidity clusters (40 conditions) recognized by CDC as high-risk. We estimated overall (direct and indirect) effects of COVID-19 emergency on mortality under different Relative Impact of the Emergency (RIE) and different Proportions of the population Affected by the Emergency (PAE). We applied the same model to the US, using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program data. Results: Weekly data until April 2020 demonstrate significant falls in admissions for chemotherapy (45-66% reduction) and urgent referrals for early cancer diagnosis (70-89% reduction), compared to pre-emergency levels. Under conservative assumptions of the emergency affecting only people with newly diagnosed cancer (incident cases) at COVID-19 PAE of 40%, and an RIE of 1.5, the model estimated 6,270 excess deaths at 1 year in England and 33,890 excess deaths in the US. In England, the proportion of patients with incident cancer with ≥1 comorbidity was 65.2%. The number of comorbidities was strongly associated with cancer mortality risk. Across a range of model assumptions, and across incident and prevalent cancer cases, 78% of excess deaths occur in cancer patients with ≥1 comorbidity. Conclusion: We provide the first estimates of potential excess mortality among people with cancer and multimorbidity due to the COVID-19 emergency and demonstrate dramatic changes in cancer services. To better inform prioritization of cancer care and guide policy change, there is an urgent need for weekly data on cause-specific excess mortality, cancer diagnosis and treatment provision and better intelligence on the use of effective treatments for comorbidities.

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African infants with vertically acquired HIV infection progress rapidly, with only 50% surviving beyond 2 years in the absence of treatment. Despite this high initial mortality, recent reports describe a substantial burden of older children living with untreated vertically acquired HIV infection in Southern Africa. The immunological and genetic factors associated with long-term survival following vertical infection are poorly understood. We performed medium-to-high resolution HLA typing on DNA samples obtained from a cohort of presumed vertically HIV-1-infected children and age-matched uninfected controls in Harare, Zimbabwe. Overall, 93 HLA class I alleles were detected in the study population with a significant enrichment of HLA-C*08:02 and -C*08:04 in the HIV-1-infected long-term survivor group. Conversely, HLA-A*02:01, A*34:02, and -B*58:02 were overrepresented in the uninfected control group. Our data indicate that HLA alleles may have differential effects against HIV acquisition and disease progression in vertical HIV-1 infection.

BackgroundThere are no host biomarkers of risk for HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis (CM) except CD4+ T-cell deficiency. At present, serum cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening of those with CD4 <100 cells/µL is used to identify persons at risk for HIV-associated CM. We determined if plasma antibody profiles could discriminate CrAg+ from CrAg- patients.MethodsWe performed serological analyses of 237 HIV-infected asymptomatic Zimbabwean patients with CD4 <100 cells/µL; 125 CrAg- and CrAg+ but cerebrospinal fluid CrAg- by CrAg lateral flow assay. We measured plasma immunoglobulin M (IgM), immunoglobulin G (IgG) 1, and IgG2 concentrations by Luminex, and titers of Cryptococcus neoformans (Cn) glucuronoxylomannan (GXM) polysaccharide and naturally occurring Laminarin (natural Lam, a β-(1–3)-glucan linked polysaccharide)-binding IgM and IgG by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.ResultsGXM-IgG, -IgM, and -IgG2 levels were significantly higher in CrAg+ patients, whereas natural Lam-IgM and Lam-IgG were higher in CrAg- patients before and after adjustment for age, sex, and CD4 T-cell count, despite overlap of values. To address this variability and better discriminate the groups, we used Akaike Information Criteria to select variables that independently predicted CrAg+ status and included them in a receiver operating characteristic curve to predict CrAg status. By inclusion of CD4, GXM-IgG, GXM-IgM, and Lam-IgG, -IgG2, and -IgM, this model had an 80.4% probability (95% confidence interval, 0.75–0.86) of predicting CrAg+ status.ConclusionsStatistical models that include multiple serological variables may improve the identification of patients at risk for CM and inform new directions in research on the complex role that antibodies may play in resistance and susceptibility to CM.

IntroductionEnumeration of CD4+ T lymphocytes is important for pre-ART disease staging and screening for opportunistic infections, however access to CD4 testing in resource limited settings is poor. Point of care (POC) technologies can facilitate improved access to CD4 testing. We evaluated the analytical performance of a novel POC device the FACSPresto compared to the FACSCalibur as a reference standard and to the PIMA, a POC device in widespread use in sub-Saharan Africa.MethodSpecimens were obtained from 253 HIV infected adults. Venous blood samples were analyzed on the FACSPresto and the FACSCalibur, in a subset of 41 samples additional analysis was done on the PIMA.ResultsThe absolute CD4 count results obtained on the FACSPresto were comparable to those on the FACSCalibur with low absolute (9.5cells/μl) and relative bias (3.2%). Bias in CD4% values was also low (1.06%) with a relative bias of 4.9%. The sensitivity was lower at a CD4 count threshold of ≤350cells/μl compared with ≤500cells/μl (84.9% vs. 92.8%) resulting in a high upward misclassification rate at low CD4 counts. Specificity at thresholds of ≤350cells/μl and ≤500cells/μl were 96.6% and 96.8% respectively. The PIMA had a high absolute (-68.6cells/μl) and relative bias (-10.5%) when compared with the FACSCalibur. At thresholds of ≤350cells/μl and ≤500cells/μl the sensitivity was 100% and 95.5% respectively; specificity was 85.7% and 84.2% respectively. The coefficients of repeatability were 4.13%, 5.29% and 9.8% respectively.DiscussionThe analytic performance of the FACSPresto against the reference standard was very good with better agreement and precision than the PIMA. The FACSPresto had comparable sensitivity at a threshold of 500 cells/μl and better specificity than the PIMA. However the FACSPresto showed reduced sensitivity at low CD4 count thresholds.ConclusionThe FACSPresto can be reliably used as a POC device for enumerating absolute CD4 count and CD4% values.

SummaryA combination of clarithromycin, low dose of thalidomide and low dose dexamethasone was used in a phase II study to treat patients with relapsed and refractory myeloma. Thirty patients received clarithromycin 250 mg twice daily and thalidomide 50 mg at night on an ongoing basis with 4-d pulses of 10 mg dexamethasone given monthly. Eight patients had permitted escalation of thalidomide dosage up to 200 mg daily. The combination was well tolerated and could be given to elderly, infirm and severely cytopenic patients. Response rates were high, with 89% achieving at least 50% reduction in paraprotein and a 96% overall response rate. Although clarithromycin has only minimal anti-myeloma properties when used as a single agent, its combination with thalidomide and dexamethasone appears very effective, allowing these to be used in lower and more tolerable doses with good clinical effects.

Objectives: Our study's primary objective was to compare 1-year survival rates between serum cryptococcal antigen (sCrAg)-positive and sCrAg-negative HIV-positive individuals with CD4 þ cell counts less than 100 cells/ml without symptoms of meningitis in Zimbabwe.Design: This was a prospective cohort study.Methods: Participants were enrolled as either sCrAg-positive or sCrAg-negative and followed up for 52 weeks or less, with death as the outcome. Lumbar punctures were recommended to all sCrAg-positives and inpatient management with intravenous amphotericin B and high-dose fluconazole was recommended to those with disseminated Cryptococcus. Antiretroviral therapy was initiated immediately in sCrAg-negatives and after at least 4 weeks following initiation of antifungals in sCrAg-positives. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine risk factors for mortality.Results: We enrolled 1320 participants and 130 (9.8%) were sCrAg positive, with a median sCrAg titre of 1 : 20. Sixty-six (50.8%) sCrAg-positives had lumbar punctures and 16.7% (11/66) had central nervous system (CNS) dissemination. Cryptococcal blood cultures were performed in 129 sCrAg-positives, with 10 (7.8%) being positive. One-year (48-52 weeks) survival rates were 83.9 and 76.1% in sCrAg-negatives and sCrAg-positives, respectively, P ¼ 0.011. Factors associated with increased mortality were a positive sCrAg, CD4 þ cell count less than 50 cells/ml and having presumptive tuberculosis (TB) symptoms. Conclusion:Our study reports a high prevalence of subclinical cryptococcal antigenemia and reiterates the importance of TB and a positive sCrAg as risk factors for mortality in advanced HIV disease (AHD). Therefore, TB and sCrAg screening remains a crucial component of AHD package, hence it should always be part of the comprehensive clinical evaluation in AHD patients.