The purpose of this technical report is to present results of an investigation of the spatial distribution of the deer tick, Ixodes scapularis, and the three parasites it carries that cause serious diseases (Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis) in humans. The study used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species niche modeling technique to produce maps predicting the probability of the presence of Ixodes scapularis in the eastern United States. The model makes predictions based on tick and disease surveillance data from the Army Public Health Center, and environmental data collected from satellite remote sensing platforms. Geospatial analysis was also used to locate patterns between the diseasecausing parasites. The resulting prediction maps of deer tick location can be used to inform vector interception planning, which attempts to lower the risk of disease-carrying ticks from infecting humans. The maps comparing the spatial distribution of the diseases related to deer ticks can be used as a launch point for further public health study into the drivers behind parasite spread, or to direct treatment resources.
This technical note (TN) describes research using the maximum entropy model to predict the presence of breeding sites for mosquitos of the genus Anopheles throughout the Korean peninsula. This methodology is also applicable to many other types of ecological niche modeling problems where analysts only have access to data related to the location a species has been found. The purpose of this study is to help address the need for new and innovative methods that promote military readiness through better understanding of vector-borne disease threats in familiar and unfamiliar operational environments. These methods can be used to provide military planners with valuable information to support their operations, particularly when operations expand into areas lacking direct disease vector surveillance. Disease vector risk information is vital for force readiness, because historically, soldiers are more likely to be unable to perform warfighting due to disease and non-combat injuries than as a direct result of combat (U.S. Department of the Army 2015). INTRODUCTION: The Anopheles genus is comprised of several hundred species of mosquito, dozens of which have the ability to transmit the parasites that cause malaria in humans (Kim et al. 2011). In 2017, there were an estimated 219 million cases of malaria worldwide, and an estimated 435,000 deaths from the disease that same year (World Health Organization 2019). Malaria is of particular interest to Army medical planners because of the long history of adverse effects it has had on combat operations (Kim et al. 2011; U.S. Department of the Army 2015). Military doctors diagnosed and treated an estimated 12,000 cases of malaria among U.S. military personnel in Korea in the early 1950s (Fukuda et al. 2018). In 1993, the disease reemerged in South Korea after a two-decade absence due to a long-term government eradication program (Cho et al. 1994). Since then, the Army has continued surveillance and study of Anopheles in Korea, along with assessing malaria risk to force readiness and evaluating prevention methods (Klein et al. 2008). While malaria in South Korea is relatively rare in the modern era, the models developed in this study provide a glimpse into the potential presence of Anopheles breeding sites in other areas that may not have extensive malaria eradication programs or surveillance data, such as North Korea or China.
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