Summary Background The use of injectable progestin-only contraceptives has been associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition in observational studies, but the biological mechanisms of this risk remain poorly understood. We aimed to assess the effects of progestins on HIV acquisition risk and the immune environment in the female genital tract. Methods In this prospective cohort, we enrolled HIV-negative South African women aged 18–23 years who were not pregnant and were living in Umlazi, South Africa from the Females Rising through Education, Support, and Health (FRESH) study. We tested for HIV-1 twice per week to monitor incident infection. Every 3 months, we collected demographic and behavioural data in addition to blood and cervical samples. The study objective was to characterise host immune determinants of HIV acquisition risk, including those associated with injectable progestin-only contraceptive use. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards methods. Findings Between Nov 19, 2012, and May 31, 2015, we characterised 432 HIV-uninfected South African women from the FRESH study. In this cohort, 152 women used injectable progestin-only contraceptives, 43 used other forms of contraception, and 222 women used no method of long-term contraception. Women using injectable progestin-only contraceptives were at substantially higher risk of acquiring HIV (12·06 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 6·41–20·63) than women using no long-term contraception (3·71 per 100 person-years, 1·36–8·07; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2·93, 95% CI 1·09–7·868, p=0·0326). HIV-negative injectable progestin-only contraceptive users had 3·92 times the frequency of cervical HIV target cells (CCR5+ CD4 T cells) compared with women using no long-term contraceptive (p=0·0241). Women using no long-term contraceptive in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle also had a 3·25 times higher frequency of cervical target cells compared with those in the follicular phase (p=0·0488), suggesting that a naturally high progestin state had similar immunological effects to injectable progestin-only contraceptives. Interpretation Injectable progestin-only contraceptive use and high endogenous progesterone are both associated with increased frequency of activated HIV targets cells at the cervix, the site of initial HIV entry in most women, providing a possible biological mechanism underlying increased HIV acquisition in women with high progestin exposure. Funding The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

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Background Hormonal changes during the menstrual cycle play a key role in shaping immunity in the cervicovaginal tract. Cervicovaginal fluid contains cytokines, chemokines, immunoglobulins, and other immune mediators. Many studies have shown that the concentrations of these immune mediators change throughout the menstrual cycle, but the studies have often shown inconsistent results. Our understanding of immunological correlates of the menstrual cycle remains limited and could be improved by meta-analysis of the available evidence. Methods We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cervicovaginal immune mediator concentrations throughout the menstrual cycle using individual participant data. Study eligibility included strict definitions of the cycle phase (by progesterone or days since the last menstrual period) and no use of hormonal contraception or intrauterine devices. We performed random-effects meta-analyses using inverse-variance pooling to estimate concentration differences between the follicular and luteal phases. In addition, we performed a new laboratory study, measuring select immune mediators in cervicovaginal lavage samples. Results We screened 1570 abstracts and identified 71 eligible studies. We analyzed data from 31 studies, encompassing 39,589 concentration measurements of 77 immune mediators made on 2112 samples from 871 participants. Meta-analyses were performed on 53 immune mediators. Antibodies, CC-type chemokines, MMPs, IL-6, IL-16, IL-1RA, G-CSF, GNLY, and ICAM1 were lower in the luteal phase than the follicular phase. Only IL-1α, HBD-2, and HBD-3 were elevated in the luteal phase. There was minimal change between the phases for CXCL8, 9, and 10, interferons, TNF, SLPI, elafin, lysozyme, lactoferrin, and interleukins 1β, 2, 10, 12, 13, and 17A. The GRADE strength of evidence was moderate to high for all immune mediators listed here. Conclusions Despite the variability of cervicovaginal immune mediator measurements, our meta-analyses show clear and consistent changes during the menstrual cycle. Many immune mediators were lower in the luteal phase, including chemokines, antibodies, matrix metalloproteinases, and several interleukins. Only interleukin-1α and beta-defensins were higher in the luteal phase. These cyclical differences may have consequences for immunity, susceptibility to infection, and fertility. Our study emphasizes the need to control for the effect of the menstrual cycle on immune mediators in future studies.