Background Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans and a major urban public health problem worldwide. Methods A prospective cohort study of ~3,800 children initially aged 2-9 years old was established in Managua, Nicaragua, in 2004 to study the natural history of dengue transmission in an urban pediatric population. Blood samples from healthy subjects were collected annually prior to the dengue season, and identification of dengue cases occurred via enhanced passive surveillance at the study health center. Results Over the first four years of the study, seroprevalence of anti-dengue virus (DENV) antibodies increased from 22-40% in the 2-year-old cohort and 90-95% in the 9-year-old cohort. The incidence of symptomatic dengue cases and the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic DENV infection varied substantially year-to-year. The switch in dominant transmission from DENV-1 to DENV-2 was accompanied by an increase in disease severity but, paradoxically, a decrease in transmission. Phylogeographic analysis of full-length DENV-2 sequences revealed strong geographic clustering of dengue cases. Conclusions This large-scale cohort study of dengue in the Americas demonstrates year-to-year variation of dengue within a pediatric population, revealing expected patterns in transmission while highlighting the impact of interventions, climate, and viral evolution.

Dengue is a major public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions; however, under-reporting of cases to national surveillance systems hinders accurate knowledge of disease burden and costs. Laboratory-confirmed dengue cases identified through the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS) were compared to those reported from other health facilities in Managua to the National Epidemiologic Surveillance (NES) program of the Nicaraguan Ministry of Health. Compared to reporting among similar pediatric populations in Managua, the PDCS identified 14 to 28 (average 21.3) times more dengue cases each year per 100,000 persons than were reported to the NES. Applying these annual expansion factors to national-level data, we estimate that the incidence of confirmed pediatric dengue throughout Nicaragua ranged from 300 to 1000 cases per 100,000 persons. We have estimated a much higher incidence of dengue than reported by the Ministry of Health. A country-specific expansion factor for dengue that allows for a more accurate estimate of incidence may aid governments and other institutions calculating disease burden, costs, resource needs for prevention and treatment, and the economic benefits of drug and vaccine development.

BackgroundTens of millions of dengue cases and approximately 500,000 life-threatening complications occur annually. New tools are needed to distinguish dengue from other febrile illnesses. In addition, the natural history of pediatric dengue early in illness in a community-based setting has not been well-defined.MethodsData from the multi-year, ongoing Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study of approximately 3,800 children aged 2–14 years in Managua, Nicaragua, were used to examine the frequency of clinical signs and symptoms by day of illness and to generate models for the association of signs and symptoms during the early phase of illness and over the entire course of illness with testing dengue-positive. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using generalized estimating equations (GEE) for repeated measures, adjusting for age and gender.ResultsOne-fourth of children who tested dengue-positive did not meet the WHO case definition for suspected dengue. The frequency of signs and symptoms varied by day of illness, dengue status, and disease severity. Multivariable GEE models showed increased odds of testing dengue-positive associated with fever, headache, retro-orbital pain, myalgia, arthralgia, rash, petechiae, positive tourniquet test, vomiting, leukopenia, platelets ≤150,000 cells/mL, poor capillary refill, cold extremities and hypotension. Estimated ORs tended to be higher for signs and symptoms over the course of illness compared to the early phase of illness.ConclusionsDay-by-day analysis of clinical signs and symptoms together with longitudinal statistical analysis showed significant associations with testing dengue-positive and important differences during the early phase of illness compared to the entire course of illness. These findings stress the importance of considering day of illness when developing prediction algorithms for real-time clinical management.

The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1–4) cause the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans worldwide. In 2009, Nicaragua experienced the largest dengue epidemic in over a decade, marked by unusual clinical presentation, as observed in two prospective studies of pediatric dengue in Managua. From August 2009–January 2010, 212 dengue cases were confirmed among 396 study participants at the National Pediatric Reference Hospital. In our parallel community-based cohort study, 170 dengue cases were recorded in 2009–10, compared to 13–65 cases in 2004–9. In both studies, significantly more patients experienced “compensated shock” (poor capillary refill plus cold extremities, tachycardia, tachypnea, and/or weak pulse) in 2009–10 than in previous years (42.5% [90/212] vs. 24.7% [82/332] in the hospital study (p<0.001) and 17% [29/170] vs. 2.2% [4/181] in the cohort study (p<0.001). Signs of poor peripheral perfusion presented significantly earlier (1–2 days) in 2009–10 than in previous years according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. In the hospital study, 19.8% of subjects were transferred to intensive care, compared to 7.1% in previous years – similar to the cohort study. DENV-3 predominated in 2008–9, 2009–10, and 2010–11, and full-length sequencing revealed no major genetic changes from 2008–9 to 2010–11. In 2008–9 and 2010–11, typical dengue was observed; only in 2009–10 was unusual presentation noted. Multivariate analysis revealed only “2009–10” as a significant risk factor for Dengue Fever with Compensated Shock. Interestingly, circulation of pandemic influenza A-H1N1 2009 in Managua was shifted such that it overlapped with the dengue epidemic. We hypothesize that prior influenza A H1N1 2009 infection may have modulated subsequent DENV infection, and initial results of an ongoing study suggest increased risk of shock among children with anti-H1N1-2009 antibodies. This study demonstrates that parameters other than serotype, viral genomic sequence, immune status, and sequence of serotypes can play a role in modulating dengue disease outcome.

Abstract. Traditional study designs do not identify acute asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic dengue virus (DENV) infections, thus limiting our understanding of immunologic and viral factors that modulate infection outcome. In the 2006 and 2007 dengue seasons, we conducted a pilot index cluster study in Managua, Nicaragua, in which 442 persons living within 50 meters of 22 index cases identified through an ongoing pediatric cohort study were evaluated for DENV infection. Post-enrollment and pre-enrollment DENV infections were confirmed in 12 (2.7%) and 19 (4.3%) contacts, respectively. Five (42%) post-enrollment infections were asymptomatic, and DENV-2 was identified in 9 (75%) infections. Phylogenetic analysis with full-length DENV genomic sequence from contacts, index cases, and cohort dengue cases indicated focal transmission and infection outside the local area. We demonstrate the feasibility of identification of acute asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases in urban Latin America, the first report of such a study in the Americas, and identify age and concomitant immunity to DENV of contacts as a key factor in index cluster study design.