Regime shifts are a feature of many ecosystems. During the last 40 years, intensive commercial exploitation and environmental changes have driven substantial shifts in ecosystem structure and function in the northwest Atlantic. In the Georges Bank-southern New England region, commercially important species have declined, and the ecosystem shifted to one dominated by economically undesirable species such as skates and dogfish. Aggregated abundance indices indicate a large increase of small and medium-sized elasmobranchs in the early 1980s following the decline of many commercial species. It has been hypothesized that ecological interactions such as competition and predation within the Georges Bank region were responsible for and are maintaining the "elasmobranch outburst" at the heart of the observed ecosystem shift. We offer an alternative hypothesis invoking population connectivity among winter skate populations such that the observed abundance increase is a result of migratory dynamics, perhaps with the Scotian Shelf (i.e., it is an open population). Here we critically evaluate the survey data for winter skate, the species principally responsible for the increase in total skate abundance during the 1980s on Georges Bank, to assess support for both hypotheses. We show that time series from different surveys within the Georges Bank region exhibit low coherence, indicating that a widespread population increase was not consistently shown by all surveys. Further, we argue that observed length-frequency data for Georges Bank indicate biologically unrealistic population fluctuations if the population is closed. Neither finding supports the elasmobranch outburst hypothesis. In contrast, survey time series for Georges Bank and the Scotian Shelf are negatively correlated, in support of the population connectivity hypothesis. Further, we argue that understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem state changes and population connectivity are needed to make inferences about both the causes and appropriate management responses to large-scale system change.

Richards, R. A., Nitschke, P. C., and Sosebee, K. A. 2008. Population biology of monkfish Lophius americanus. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 1291–1305. This paper provides an overview of the biology of monkfish in US waters of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean using data from resource surveys spanning the period 1948–2007. Monkfish exhibited seasonal onshore–offshore shifts in distribution, migrated out of the southern Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) in mid-spring, and re-appeared there in autumn. Sex ratios at length for fish 40–65-cm long were skewed towards males in the southern MAB, but approximated unity elsewhere, suggesting that a portion of the population resides outside sampled areas. Growth was linear at 9.9 cm year−1 and did not differ by region or sex. Maximum observed size was 138 cm for females and 85 cm for males. Length at 50% maturity for males was 35.6 cm (4.1 years old) in the north and 37.9 cm (4.3 years old) in the south; for females 38.8 cm (4.6 years old) in the north and 43.8 cm (4.9 years old) in the south. Ripe females were found in shallow (<50 m) and deep (>200 m) water in the south, and in shallow water (<50 m) in the north.

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