We present a global analysis of the spread of recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 variants and estimate changes in effective reproduction numbers at country-specific level using sequence data from GISAID. Nearly all investigated countries demonstrated rapid replacement of previously circulating lineages by the World Health Organization-designated variants of concern, with estimated transmissibility increases of 29% (95% CI: 24–33), 25% (95% CI: 20–30), 38% (95% CI: 29–48) and 97% (95% CI: 76–117), respectively, for B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 and B.1.617.2.

This study analyzes data from 19 countries (from April 2009 to Jan 2010), comprising some 70,000 hospitalized patients with severe H1N1 infection, to reveal risk factors for severe pandemic influenza, which include chronic illness, cardiac disease, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes.

The formulation of accurate clinical case definitions is an integral part of an effective process of public health surveillance. Although such definitions should, ideally, be based on a standardized and fixed collection of defining criteria, they often require revision to reflect new knowledge of the condition involved and improvements in diagnostic testing. Optimal case definitions also need to have a balance of sensitivity and specificity that reflects their intended use. After the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) initiated a technical consultation on global influenza surveillance. This prompted improvements in the sensitivity and specificity of the case definition for influenza – i.e. a respiratory disease that lacks uniquely defining symptomology. The revision process not only modified the definition of influenza-like illness, to include a simplified list of the criteria shown to be most predictive of influenza infection, but also clarified the language used for the definition, to enhance interpretability. To capture severe cases of influenza that required hospitalization, a new case definition was also developed for severe acute respiratory infection in all age groups. The new definitions have been found to capture more cases without compromising specificity. Despite the challenge still posed in the clinical separation of influenza from other respiratory infections, the global use of the new WHO case definitions should help determine global trends in the characteristics and transmission of influenza viruses and the associated disease burden.

Background: Nodding syndrome (repetitive nodding and progressive generalized seizures) is assuming epidemic proportions in South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.

An epidemic illness characterized by head nodding associated with onchocerciasis has been described in eastern Africa since the early 1960s; we summarize published reports and recent studies. Onset of nodding occurs in previously healthy 5–15-year-old children and is often triggered by eating or cold temperatures and accompanied by cognitive impairment. Its incidence has increased in Uganda and South Sudan over the past 10 years. Four case–control studies identified modest and inconsistent associations. There were nonspecific lesions seen by magnetic resonance imaging, no cerebrospinal fluid inflammation, and markedly abnormal electroencephalography results. Nodding episodes are atonic seizures. Testing has failed to demonstrate associations with trypanosomiasis, cysticercosis, loiasis, lymphatic filariasis, cerebral malaria, measles, prion disease, or novel pathogens; or deficiencies of folate, cobalamin, pyridoxine, retinol, or zinc; or toxicity from mercury, copper, or homocysteine. There is a consistent enigmatic association with onchocerciasis detected by skin snip or serologic analysis. Nodding syndrome is an unexplained epidemic epilepsy.

BackgroundThe timing of the biannual WHO influenza vaccine composition selection and production cycle has been historically directed to the influenza seasonality patterns in the temperate regions of the northern and southern hemispheres. Influenza activity, however, is poorly understood in the tropics with multiple peaks and identifiable year-round activity. The evidence-base needed to take informed decisions on vaccination timing and vaccine formulation is often lacking for the tropics and subtropics. This paper aims to assess influenza seasonality in the tropics and subtropics. It explores geographical grouping of countries into vaccination zones based on optimal timing of influenza vaccination.MethodsInfluenza seasonality was assessed by different analytic approaches (weekly proportion of positive cases, time series analysis, etc.) using FluNet and national surveillance data. In case of discordance in the seasonality assessment, consensus was built through discussions with in-country experts. Countries with similar onset periods of their primary influenza season were grouped into geographical zones.ResultsThe number and period of peak activity was ascertained for 70 of the 138 countries in the tropics and subtropics. Thirty-seven countries had one and seventeen countries had two distinct peaks. Countries near the equator had secondary peaks or even identifiable year-round activity. The main influenza season in most of South America and Asia started between April and June. The start of the main season varied widely in Africa (October and December in northern Africa, April and June in Southern Africa and a mixed pattern in tropical Africa). Eight “influenza vaccination zones” (two each in America and Asia, and four in Africa and Middle East) were defined with recommendations for vaccination timing and vaccine formulation. The main limitation of our study is that FluNet and national surveillance data may lack the granularity to detect sub-national variability in seasonality patterns.ConclusionDistinct influenza seasonality patterns, though complex, could be ascertained for most countries in the tropics and subtropics using national surveillance data. It may be possible to group countries into zones based on similar recommendations for vaccine timing and formulation.

Background: Nodding Syndrome is a seizure disorder of children in Mundri County, Western Equatoria, South Sudan. The disorder is reported to be spreading in South Sudan and northern Uganda. Results: Nodding Syndrome was associated with Onchocerca volvulus and Mansonella perstans infections, with food use of a variety of sorghum (serena) introduced as part of an emergency relief program, and was inversely associated with a history of measles infection. There was no evidence to suggest exposure to a manmade neurotoxic pollutant or chemical agent, other than chemically dressed seed intended for planting but used for food. Food use of cyanogenic plants was documented, and exposure to fungal contaminants could not be excluded. Conclusion: Nodding Syndrome in South Sudan has an unknown etiology. Further research is recommended on the association of Nodding Syndrome with onchocerciasis/mansonelliasis and neurotoxins in plant materials used for food.

AimThe evidence needed for tropical countries to take informed decisions on influenza vaccination is scarce. This article reviews policy, availability, use and effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in tropical and subtropical countries.MethodGlobal health databases were searched in three thematic areas – policy, availability and protective benefits in the context of human seasonal influenza vaccine in the tropics and subtropics. We excluded studies on monovalent pandemic influenza vaccine, vaccine safety, immunogenicity and uptake, and disease burden.ResultsSeventy‐four countries in the tropics and subtropics representing 60% of the world's population did not have a national vaccination policy against seasonal influenza. Thirty‐eight countries used the Northern Hemisphere and 21 countries the Southern Hemisphere formulation. Forty‐six countries targeted children and 57 targeted the elderly; though, the age cut‐offs varied. Influenza vaccine supply increased twofold in recent years. However, coverage remained lower than five per 1000 population. Vaccine protection against laboratory‐confirmed influenza in the tropics ranged from 0% to 42% in the elderly, 20–77% in children and 50–59% in healthy adults. Vaccinating pregnant women against seasonal influenza prevented laboratory‐confirmed influenza in both mothers (50%) and their infants <6 months (49–63%).ConclusionGuidelines on vaccine composition, priority risk groups and vaccine availability varied widely. The evidence on vaccine protection was scarce. Countries in the tropics and subtropics need to strengthen and expand their evidence‐base required for making informed decisions on influenza vaccine introduction and expansion, and how much benefit to expect.