BackgroundLong-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) are the primary vector control interventions used to prevent malaria in Africa. Although both interventions are effective in some settings, high-quality evidence is rarely available to evaluate their effectiveness following deployment by a national malaria control program. In Uganda, we measured changes in key malaria indicators following universal LLIN distribution in three sites, with the addition of IRS at one of these sites.Methods and FindingsComprehensive malaria surveillance was conducted from October 1, 2011, to March 31, 2016, in three sub-counties with relatively low (Walukuba), moderate (Kihihi), and high transmission (Nagongera). Between 2013 and 2014, universal LLIN distribution campaigns were conducted in all sites, and in December 2014, IRS with the carbamate bendiocarb was initiated in Nagongera. High-quality surveillance evaluated malaria metrics and mosquito exposure before and after interventions through (a) enhanced health-facility-based surveillance to estimate malaria test positivity rate (TPR), expressed as the number testing positive for malaria/number tested for malaria (number of children tested for malaria: Walukuba = 42,833, Kihihi = 28,790, and Nagongera = 38,690); (b) cohort studies to estimate the incidence of malaria, expressed as the number of episodes per person-year [PPY] at risk (number of children observed: Walukuba = 340, Kihihi = 380, and Nagongera = 361); and (c) entomology surveys to estimate household-level human biting rate (HBR), expressed as the number of female Anopheles mosquitoes collected per house-night of collection (number of households observed: Walukuba = 117, Kihihi = 107, and Nagongera = 107). The LLIN distribution campaign substantially increased LLIN coverage levels at the three sites to between 65.0% and 95.5% of households with at least one LLIN. In Walukuba, over the 28-mo post-intervention period, universal LLIN distribution was associated with no change in the incidence of malaria (0.39 episodes PPY pre-intervention versus 0.20 post-intervention; adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 1.02, 95% CI 0.36–2.91, p = 0.97) and non-significant reductions in the TPR (26.5% pre-intervention versus 26.2% post-intervention; aRR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.46–1.06, p = 0.09) and HBR (1.07 mosquitoes per house-night pre-intervention versus 0.71 post-intervention; aRR = 0.41, 95% CI 0.14–1.18, p = 0.10). In Kihihi, over the 21-mo post-intervention period, universal LLIN distribution was associated with a reduction in the incidence of malaria (1.77 pre-intervention versus 1.89 post-intervention; aRR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.43–0.98, p = 0.04) but no significant change in the TPR (49.3% pre-intervention versus 45.9% post-intervention; aRR = 0.83, 95% 0.58–1.18, p = 0.30) or HBR (4.06 pre-intervention versus 2.44 post-intervention; aRR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.30–1.64, p = 0.40). In Nagongera, over the 12-mo post-intervention period, universal LLIN distribution was associated with a reduction in the TPR (45...

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ObjectivesThere is a growing body of literature on malaria forecasting methods and the objective of our review is to identify and assess methods, including predictors, used to forecast malaria.DesignScoping review. Two independent reviewers searched information sources, assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data from each study.Information sourcesSearch strategies were developed and the following databases were searched: CAB Abstracts, EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses and Web of Science. Key journals and websites were also manually searched.Eligibility criteria for included studiesWe included studies that forecasted incidence, prevalence or epidemics of malaria over time. A description of the forecasting model and an assessment of the forecast accuracy of the model were requirements for inclusion. Studies were restricted to human populations and to autochthonous transmission settings.ResultsWe identified 29 different studies that met our inclusion criteria for this review. The forecasting approaches included statistical modelling, mathematical modelling and machine learning methods. Climate-related predictors were used consistently in forecasting models, with the most common predictors being rainfall, relative humidity, temperature and the normalised difference vegetation index. Model evaluation was typically based on a reserved portion of data and accuracy was measured in a variety of ways including mean-squared error and correlation coefficients. We could not compare the forecast accuracy of models from the different studies as the evaluation measures differed across the studies.ConclusionsApplying different forecasting methods to the same data, exploring the predictive ability of non-environmental variables, including transmission reducing interventions and using common forecast accuracy measures will allow malaria researchers to compare and improve models and methods, which should improve the quality of malaria forecasting.

The robust estimate and forecast capability of random forests (RF) has been widely recognized, however this ensemble machine learning method has not been widely used in mosquito-borne disease forecasting. In this study, two sets of RF models were developed at the national (pooled department-level data) and department level in Colombia to predict weekly dengue cases for 12-weeks ahead. A pooled national model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) was also developed and used as a comparator to the RF models. The various predictors included historic dengue cases, satellite-derived estimates for vegetation, precipitation, and air temperature, as well as population counts, income inequality, and education. Our RF model trained on the pooled national data was more accurate for department-specific weekly dengue cases estimation compared to a local model trained only on the department's data. Additionally, the forecast errors of the national RF model were smaller to those of the national pooled ANN model and were increased with the forecast horizon increasing from one-week-ahead (mean absolute error, MAE: 9.32) to 12-weeks ahead (MAE: 24.56). There was considerable variation in the relative importance of predictors dependent on forecast horizon. The environmental and meteorological predictors were relatively important for short-term dengue forecast horizons while socio-demographic predictors were relevant for longer-term forecast horizons. This study demonstrates the potential of RF in dengue forecasting with a feasible approach of using a national pooled model to forecast at finer spatial PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES

Reductions in ambulatory blood pressure in young normotensive men and women after isometric resistance training and its relationship with cardiovascular reactivity. Blood Pressure Monitoring. 22(1), pp. 17. 13595237.It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. Version: Accepted versionOfficial URL: http://dx

This commentary discusses the contributions that One Health (OH) principles can make in improving the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We highlight four areas where the application of OH has the potential to significantly improve the governance of infectious diseases in general, and of COVID-19 in particular. First, more integrated surveillance infrastructure and monitoring of the occurrence of infectious diseases in both humans and animals can facilitate the detection of new infectious agents sharing similar genotypes across species and the monitoring of the spatio-temporal spread of such infections. This knowledge can guide public and animal health officials in their response measures. Second, application of the OH approach can improve coordination and active collaboration among stakeholders representing apparently incompatible domains. Third, the OH approach highlights the need for an effective institutional landscape, facilitating adequate regulation of hotspots for transmission of infectious agents among animals and humans, such as live animal markets. And finally, OH thinking emphasizes the need for equitable solutions to infectious disease challenges, suggesting that policy response mechanisms and interventions need to be reflective of the disproportionate disease burdens borne by vulnerable and marginalized populations, or by persons providing health care and other essential services to those sick.

Key Points Question What is the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a convenience sample of children aged 2 to 17 years in Montreal, Canada, enrolled between October 2020 and March 2021? Findings In this cohort study of 1632 participants, the mean baseline seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 5.8%. Of the 95 participants who were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, 82% were not tested or tested negative, and all experienced either mild or no clinical symptoms. Meaning The findings suggest that there was more transmission occurring in children compared with what was being detected, although children experienced few or mild symptoms.

The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals committed to "Leave No One Behind" regardless of social identity. While access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services has improved globally, people with disabilities continue to face enormous barriers to SRH, infringing on their SRH rights (SRHR). Uganda adopted pro-disability legislation to promote the rights of people with disabilities. Despite these legal instruments, SRHR of people with disabilities continue to be violated and denied. To address this, we sought to understand and document how people with disabilities perceive the relationships between their use of SRH services, legislation, and health policy in three districts of the post-conflict Northern region of Uganda. Through an intersectionality-informed analysis, we interviewed 32 women and men with different types of impairments (physical, sensory and mental) and conducted two focus groups with 12 hearing and non-hearing disabled people as well as non-participant observations at seven health facilities. We found that disabled people's access to SHR services is shaped by the intersections of gender, disability, and violence, and that individuals with disabilities experienced discrimination across both private-not-for-profit and public health facilities. They also encountered numerous physical, attitudinal, and communication accessibility barriers. Despite policy implementation challenges, people with disabilities expected to exercise their rights and made concrete multi-level recommendations to redress situations of inequity and disadvantages in SRH service utilisation. Intersectionality revealed blind spots in policy implementation and service utilisation gaps. Universal health coverage can be operationalised in actionable measures where its universality meets with social justice.