Long time series of reliable individual growth estimates are crucial for understanding the status of a fish stock and deciding upon appropriate management. Tagging data provide valuable information about fish growth, and are especially useful when age‐based growth estimates and stock assessments are compromised by age‐determination uncertainties. However, in the literature there is a lack of studies assessing possible changes in growth over time using tagging data. Here, data from tagging experiments performed in the Baltic Sea between 1971 and 2019 were added to those previously analysed for 1955–1970 to build the most extensive tagging dataset available for Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae), a threatened stock with severe age‐determination problems. Two length‐based methods, the GROTAG model (based on the von Bertalanffy growth function) and a Generalized Additive Model, were used to assess for the first time the potential long‐term changes in cod growth using age‐independent data. Both methods showed strong changes in growth with an increase until the end of the 1980s (8.6–10.6 cm/year for a 40 cm cod depending on the model) followed by a sharp decline. This study also revealed that the current growth of cod is the lowest observed in the past 7 decades (4.3–5.1 cm/year for a 40 cm cod depending on the model), indicating very low productivity. This study provides the first example of the use of tagging data to estimate multidecadal changes in growth rates in wild fish. This methodology can also be applied to other species, especially in those cases where severe age‐determination problems exist.

Tag–recapture data contain valuable information about individual fish growth, which can enhance the estimation of growth parameters. Tag–recapture data are especially useful when age-determination uncertainties throw age-based growth estimates and stock assessments into question, as is the present situation with several important gadoid stocks. Length-based (GROTAG method) and age-based (LEP method) growth functions were fit to a large data set of tagged and recaptured cod (Gadus morhua) from an artificial reef in the western Baltic Sea to calculate improved growth parameter estimates. The LEP method allowed integration of different data formats, including tag–recapture, length frequency, and length-at-age, to estimate a more robust and comprehensive growth function (von Bertalanffy growth parameters: L∞ = 154.56 cm, k = 0.11, t0 = –0.13). Two heavily exploited cod stocks inhabit the Baltic Sea, subsisting at the upper thermal and lower salinity limits of the species. Otolith shape analyses indicated that, unexpectedly, individuals from both populations were resident at the reef. Compared with cod populations elsewhere, cod in the western Baltic Sea grow relatively slowly and with weak seasonal fluctuations in growth rates, potentially due to adverse conditions for growth.

Accurate age data is essential for reliable fish stock assessment. Yet many stocks suffer from inconsistencies in age interpretation. A new approach to obtain age makes use of the chemical composition of otoliths. This study validates the periodicity of recurrent patterns in 25Mg, 31P, 34K, 55Mn, 63Cu, 64Zn, 66Zn, 85Rb, 88Sr, 138Ba, and 208Pb in Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) otoliths from tag-recapture and known-age samples. Otolith P concentrations showed the highest consistency in seasonality over the years, with minima co-occurring with otolith winter zones in the known-age otoliths and in late winter/early spring when water temperatures are coldest in tagged cod . The timing of minima differs between stocks, occurring around February in western Baltic cod and one month later in eastern Baltic cod; seasonal maxima are also stock-specific, occurring in August and October, respectively. The amplitude in P is larger in faster-growing western compared to eastern Baltic cod. Seasonal patterns with minima in winter/late spring were also evident in Mg and Mn, but less consistent over time and fish size than P. Chronological patterns in P, and to a lesser extent Mg and Mn, may have the potential to supplement traditional age estimation or to guide the visual identification of translucent and opaque otolith patterns used in traditional age estimation

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Warming temperatures caused by climate change have the potential to impact spawning phenology of temperate marine fish as some species have temperature-dependent gonadal development. Inter-annual variation in the timing of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) spawning in the northern North Sea, central North Sea and Irish Sea was estimated by calculating an annual peak roe month (PRM) from records of roe landings spanning the last three decades. A trend towards earlier PRM was found in all three regions, with estimates of shifts in PRM ranging from 0.9 to 2.4 weeks per decade. Temperatures experienced by cod during early vitellogenesis correlated negatively with PRM, suggesting that rising sea temperatures have contributed to a shift in spawning phenology. A concurrent reduction in the mean size of spawning females excluded the possibility that earlier spawning was due to a shift in size structure towards larger individuals, as large cod spawn earlier than smaller-sized individuals in the North Sea. Further research into the effects of climate change on the phenology of different trophic levels within the North Sea ecosystem should be undertaken to determine whether climate change-induced shifts in spawning phenology will result in a temporal mismatch between cod larvae and their planktonic prey.

The contrasting zones within otoliths are commonly used to infer age of fish, assuming that 1 opaque zone and 1 translucent zone (TZ) form per year. However, the periodicity of zone formation is often un-validated and susceptible to interpretation errors and uncertainties, which propagate into age-structured calculations. The western Baltic cod Gadus morhua (WBC) stock is currently evaluated through an age-based assessment, using the typical, temperate area assumption that TZs form in autumn/winter. The periodicity of zone formation was evaluated through a mark-recapture experiment with juvenile and young adult WBC. During 2014-2017, 9111 wild cod were tagged externally (T-bar anchor tag) and internally (injection with tetracycline-hydrochloride induced a permanent fluorescent mark on their otoliths) and released. Timing of TZ formation was reconstructed through examination of otoliths from recaptured age 0-3 cod for which all required information and otoliths were available (n = 59, length range: 173-500 mm). Contrary to the assumption that TZs are formed during winter, recaptured cod consistently formed 1 TZ per year, between summer and autumn, in both juveniles (age 0-1) and young adults (age 2-3). A calendar year in the otolith is therefore composed of a TZ with opaque material on either side. Coincidence of TZ formation and recent evidence of shallow-water avoidance and reduced feeding and growth in WBC during peak summer suggests that TZs are formed when metabolic demands cannot be met. The results improve accuracy of WBC age estimates and highlight the feasibility and importance of conducting age validation experiments.

The methods routinely used to estimate fish age are often un-validated and susceptible to errors and uncertainties. Despite numerous attempts, age determination of western Baltic cod (WBC, Gadus morhua) using otoliths is still unreliable, predominantly due to inconsistent interpretation of the first translucent zone (TZ). Length-frequencies of undersized (<38 cm) cod collected during 2013–2016 from pound nets near Fehmarn Island were analysed to understand TZ formation patterns. A clear minimum separated two cohorts within the length-frequency samples every year. The length-frequency information was combined with otolith edge analysis to observe the development of TZs in age-0 and age-1 cod otoliths, and to validate the timing of TZ formation, which was consistently completed between September and December. Mean TZ diameters of 4 917 juvenile cod otoliths varied between cohorts (mean diameters of the first TZ: 2.0 ± 0.5 mm; second TZ: 3.9 mm ± 0.5) and TZ diameter variation was found to be related to individual growth rate. The timing of formation of the first TZ was positively related to water temperature, and was confirmed as a “summer ring” rather than a “winter ring”. TZ formation and shallow-water occupancy suggest an influence of peak summer water temperatures on WBC ecology. An age reading guide for juvenile WBC otoliths is provided.

The use of growth estimation methods that depend on unreliable age data has previously hindered the quantification of perceived differences in growth rates between the two cod stocks inhabiting the Baltic Sea. Data from cod tagged in different regions of the Baltic Sea during 2007–2019 were combined, and general linear models were fit to investigate inter-regional (defined as area of release) and inter-stock (assigned to a subset of recaptures using genetic and otolith shape analyses) differences in individual growth. An average-sized cod (364 mm) caught in the western Baltic Sea and assigned to the western Baltic cod stock grew at more than double the rate (145 mm year−1) on average than a cod of the same size caught in the eastern Baltic Sea and assigned to the eastern Baltic cod stock (58 mm year−1), highlighting the current poor conditions for the growth of cod in the eastern Baltic Sea. The regional differences in growth rate were more than twice as large (63 mm year−1) as the stock differences (24 mm year−1). Although the relative importance of environmental and genetic factors cannot be fully resolved through this study, these results suggest that environmental experience may contribute to growth differences between Baltic cod stocks.