The share of industrial production in GDP has expressed accelerated decrease for several last decades, while at the same time the sector of services gains an ever-increasing role in the modern society. A general impression is that the process of deindustrialization is an unavoidable global phenomenon. However, the fact that seems to be neglected is that historical observations indicate industrial sector as the pillar of longstanding development and progress, and that its role in overcoming the stages of crisis is of crucial importance, just as showed the episode of COVID-19 pandemic. The modern industrial sector cannot be observed out of the context of international production and trade, which acknowledge and express the final purpose of industrial investments, since they ensure possible overcoming of the national market limits, the achievement of economies of scale in relatively short time, and most importantly - the access to modern technologies. The development of global value chains, i.e. the production fragmentation based on the international division of labour, presents a revolutionary, global phenomenon, which has provided a chance for every country to get included into the process of global industrial production according to its comparative advantages. Serbia takes part in the global value chains owing to its geographic position, respectful human resources/professional staff, infrastructure, and the national openness; however, the implied question is the quality of the participation and what can be done to achieve better results. Can we regard Serbia just as the hub where final products are assembled or there is a considerable value added created in our factories? This paper offers an overview of the subsectors with the highest inclusion in the global value chains, as well as the analysis of their exports, output and gross value added trends, and the parameters of efficiency of investment in the most profitable subsectors. Identifying the areas with low investment efficiency is an important diagnostic tool for decision makers and presents a challenge as regards the adequate allocation of resources leading to increased profitability of investments and exports. Finally, we present the overview of the developments in ICT sector that is recognized as a valuable chance for Serbia, having in mind its increasing share in GDP, and its significance for the forthcoming process of digitalization and Industry 4.0.
Early warning systems (EWSs) are designed to anticipate future crises, giving policymakers optimism that they would be able to make proactive management decisions. The demonstration of EWSs effectiveness in the economy was clear throughout the Asian financial crisis at the end of the 1990s, the financial crisis of 2007-2008, the Great Recession, and the European sovereign debt crisis of 2008-2012. However, EWSs failed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using Eichengreen et al. [13], Kaminsky et al. [23], and Sachs et al. [33] methodology, the paper explains this phenomenon by analyzing the determinants of currency crises episodes in the Republic of Serbia from January 2001 to December 2021. The complexity of the current crisis required a change of approach. As reflected by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, one of the solutions is to develop a Decision-Making Support System (DMSS). EWSs presented here could serve as one of the many inputs in the assessment and identification of financial crises. However, these models are not accurate enough to be used as the sole method to anticipate crises. Like other crisis models, they bring benefits but obviously have their drawbacks. That is why it would be good to put them under the auspices of a more complex DMSS. Again, for now DMSS should be seen just as a better alternative to earlier practice. This is neither a final nor an almighty option, but it must be further worked on in the future.
Modern society is witnessing a data revolution which necessarily entails changes to the overall behavior of citizens, governments and companies. This is a big challenge and an opportunity for National Statistics Offices (NSOs). Especially after the outbreak of COVID-19, when the public debate about the number of mortalities and tested and infected persons escalated, trusted data is required more than ever. Which data can modern society trust? Are modern societies being subjected to opinion rather than fact? This paper introduces a new statistical tool to facilitate policy-making based on trusted statistics. Using economic indicators to illustrate implementation, the new statistical tool is shown to be a flexible instrument for analysis, monitoring and evaluation of the economic situation in the Republic of Serbia. By taking a role in public policy management, the tool can be used to transform the NSO’s role in the statistical system into an active participant in public debate in contrast to the previous traditional, usually passive role of collecting, processing and publishing data. The tool supports the integration of statistics into public policies and connects the knowledge and expertise of official statisticians on one side with political decision makers on the other.
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