Background Serum glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and neurofilament light (NfL) are putative non-amyloid blood-based biomarkers indicative of ongoing inflammatory and neurodegenerative disease processes. We aimed to assess their prognostic and monitoring value for progression to dementia in individuals presenting at a memory clinic who are cognitively normal.Methods For this prospective cohort study, we included individuals who were cognitively normal from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort and received screening for dementia at first visit and annual follow-up visits. Participants without a serum sample stored in the Amsterdam Dementia Biobank within 6 months of baseline visit and without a follow-up diagnosis after a minimum of 6 months were excluded. We measured serum GFAP and NfL levels at baseline for all participants and at follow-up for a subset of participants. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we investigated associations of biomarker levels (Z-transformed) with incident dementia (adjusted for age and sex), by entering the markers first separately and then simultaneously, to test independent associations. We also assessed longitudinal performance of the markers on a standardised neuropsychological test battery covering global cognition, memory, language, executive functioning, and attention (adjusted for age, sex, and education). Finally, we evaluated the association of slopes of biomarker levels with incident dementia (adjusted for age and sex).

ObjectiveTo investigate the relationship between the ATN classification system (amyloid, tau, neurodegeneration) and risk of dementia and cognitive decline in individuals with subjective cognitive decline (SCD).MethodsWe classified 693 participants with SCD (60 ± 9 years, 41% women, Mini-Mental State Examination score 28 ± 2) from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort and Subjective Cognitive Impairment Cohort (SCIENCe) project according to the ATN model, as determined by amyloid PET or CSF β-amyloid (A), CSF p-tau (T), and MRI-based medial temporal lobe atrophy (N). All underwent extensive neuropsychological assessment. For 342 participants, follow-up was available (3 ± 2 years). As a control population, we included 124 participants without SCD.ResultsFifty-six (n = 385) participants had normal Alzheimer disease (AD) biomarkers (A–T–N–), 27% (n = 186) had non-AD pathologic change (A–T–N+, A–T+N–, A–T+N+), 18% (n = 122) fell within the Alzheimer continuum (A+T–N–, A+T–N+, A+T+N–, A+T+N+). ATN profiles were unevenly distributed, with A–T+N+, A+T–N+, and A+T+N+ containing very few participants. Cox regression showed that compared to A–T–N–, participants in A+ profiles had a higher risk of dementia with a dose–response pattern for number of biomarkers affected. Linear mixed models showed participants in A+ profiles showed a steeper decline on tests addressing memory, attention, language, and executive functions. In the control group, there was no association between ATN and cognition.ConclusionsAmong individuals presenting with SCD at a memory clinic, those with a biomarker profile A–T+N+, A+T–N–, A+T+N–, and A+T+N+ were at increased risk of dementia, and showed steeper cognitive decline compared to A–T–N– individuals. These results suggest a future where biomarker results could be used for individualized risk profiling in cognitively normal individuals presenting at a memory clinic.