Tropical forests and the biodiversity they contain are declining at an alarming rate throughout the world. Although southern Belize is generally recognized as a highly forested landscape, it is becoming increasingly threatened by unsustainable agricultural practices. Deforestation data allow forest managers to efficiently allocate resources and inform decisions for proper conservation and management. This study utilized satellite imagery to analyze recent forest cover and deforestation in southern Belize to model vulnerability and identify the areas that are the most susceptible to future forest loss. A forest cover change analysis was conducted in Google Earth Engine using a supervised classification of Landsat 8 imagery with ground-truthed land cover points as training data. A multi-layer perceptron neural network model was performed to predict the potential spatial patterns and magnitude of forest loss based on the regional drivers of deforestation. The assessment indicates that the agricultural frontier will continue to expand into recently untouched forests, predicting a decrease from 75.0% mature forest cover in 2016 to 71.9% in 2026. This study represents the most up-to-date assessment of forest cover and the first vulnerability and prediction assessment in southern Belize with immediate applications in conservation planning, monitoring, and management.

Throughout the world, deforestation, degradation, and fragmentation threaten the integrity of tropical forests and the biodiversity that they contain. Although southern Belize is generally recognized as a highly forested landscape, it is becoming increasingly threatened as unsustainable agricultural practices reduce its capacity to provide life-supporting ecosystem services. Deforestation data is necessary for forest managers to efficiently allocate resources and make decisions for proper conservation and resource management. This study utilized satellite imagery to map and analyze current forest cover and recent forest loss in southern Belize in order to identify the areas that are the most susceptible to future deforestation. A forest cover change analysis was conducted using a supervised classification of Landsat imagery and ground-truthed land cover points in Google Earth Engine. Then, a proximity-based model was used to predict where deforestation could occur in the future based on the drivers of deforestation. The assessment indicates that the agricultural frontier will continue to expand into recently untouched forests. The results of this study will be used in spatial conservation planning in order to strategically focus conservation efforts in the most threatened areas in southern Belize. The sites that were found to be most vulnerable to future deforestation will be locations for implementing law enforcement and compliance, sustainable agriculture, and community outreach. This method could be applied to conservation planning in other regions to prioritize the protection of threatened areas.