We study the convergence properties of a collapsed Gibbs sampler for Bayesian vector autoregressions with predictors, or exogenous variables. The Markov chain generated by our algorithm is shown to be geometrically ergodic regardless of whether the number of observations in the underlying vector autoregression is small or large in comparison to the order and dimension of it. In a convergence complexity analysis, we also give conditions for when the geometric ergodicity is asymptotically stable as the number of observations tends to infinity. Specifically, the geometric convergence rate is shown to be bounded away from unity asymptotically, either almost surely or with probability tending to one, depending on what is assumed about the data generating process. This result is one of the first of its kind for practically relevant Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Our convergence results hold under close to arbitrary model misspecification.
Practically relevant statistical models often give rise to probability distributions that are analytically intractable. Fortunately, we now have a collection of algorithms, known as
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
, that has brought many of these models within our computational reach. MCMC is a simulation technique that allows us to make (approximate) draws from complex, high‐dimensional probability distributions. A staggering amount of research has been done on both the theoretical and applied aspects of MCMC. This article does not intend to be a complete overview of MCMC but only hopes to get the reader started in the right direction. To this end, this article begins with a general description of the types of problems that necessitate the use of MCMC. It then introduces the fundamental algorithms and addresses some general implementation issues.
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