The value of player decisions has typically been measured by changes in possession expectations, rather than relative to the value of a player’s alternative options. This study presents a mathematical approach to the measurement of passing decisions of Australian Rules footballers that considers the risk and reward of passing options. A new method for quantifying a player’s spatial influence is demonstrated through a process called commitment modeling, in which the bounds and density of a player’s motion model are fit on empirical commitment to contests, producing a continuous representation of a team’s spatial ownership. This process involves combining the probability density functions of contests that a player committed to, and those they did not. Spatiotemporal player tracking data was collected for AFL matches played at a single stadium in the 2017 and 2018 seasons. It was discovered that the probability of a player committing to a contest decreases as a function of their velocity and of the ball’s time-to-point. Furthermore, the peak density of player commitment probabilities is at a greater distance in front of a player the faster they are moving, while their ability to participate in contests requiring re-orientation diminishes at higher velocities. Analysis of passing decisions revealed that, for passes resulting in a mark, opposition pressure is bimodal, with peaks at spatial dominance equivalent to no pressure and to a one-on-one contest. Density of passing distance peaks at 17.3 m, marginally longer than the minimum distance of a legal mark (15 m). Conversely, the model presented in this study identifies long-range options as have higher associated decision-making values, however a lack of passes in these ranges may be indicative of differing tactical behavior or a difficulty in identifying long-range options.

The primary aim of this study was to determine the relationship between a team numerical advantage during structured phases of play and match event outcomes in professional Australian football. The secondary aim was to quantify how players occupy different sub-areas of the playing field in match play, while accounting for match phase and ball location. Spatiotemporal player tracking data and play-by-play event data from professional players and teams were collected from the 2019 Australian Football League season played at a single stadium. Logistic regression analysed the relationship between total players and team numerical advantage during clearances and inside 50’s. Total players and team numerical advantage were also quantified continuously throughout a match, which were separated into three match phases (offence, defence, and stoppage) and four field positions (defensive 50, defensive midfield, attacking midfield, and forward 50). Results identified an increased team numerical advantage produced a greater likelihood of gaining possession from clearances or generating a score from inside 50’s. Although, an increased number of total players inside 50 was likely associated with a concomitant decrease in the probability of scoring, irrespective of a team numerical advantage. Teams were largely outnumbered when the ball was in their forward 50 but attained a numerical advantage when the ball was in the defensive 50.

The objective of this study was to incorporate contextual information into the modelling of player movements. This was achieved by combining the distributions of forthcoming passing contests that players committed to and those they did not. The resultant array measures the probability a player would commit to forthcoming contests in their vicinity. Commitment-based motion models were fit on 46220 samples of player behavior in the Australian Football League. It was found that the shape of commitment-based models differed greatly to displacement-based models for Australian footballers. Player commitment arrays were used to measure the spatial occupancy and dominance of the attacking team. The spatial characteristics of pass receivers were extracted for 2934 passes. Positional trends in passing were identified. Furthermore, passes were clustered into three components using Gaussian mixture models. Passes in the AFL are most commonly to one-on-one contests or unmarked players. Furthermore, passes were rarely greater than 25 m.

With 36 players on the field, congestion in Australian football is an important consideration in identifying passing capacity, assessing fan enjoyment, and evaluating the effect of rule changes. However, no current method of objectively measuring congestion has been reported. This study developed two methods to measure congestion in Australian football. The first continuously determined the number of players situated within various regions of density at successive time intervals during a match using density-based clustering to group players as ‘primary’, ‘secondary’, or ‘outside’. The second method aimed to classify the level of congestion a player experiences (high, nearby, or low) when disposing of the ball using the Random Forest algorithm. Both approaches were developed using data from the 2019 and 2021 Australian Football League (AFL) regular seasons, considering contextual variables, such as field position and quarter. Player tracking data and match event data from professional male players were collected from 56 matches performed at a single stadium. The random forest model correctly classified disposals in high congestion (0.89 precision, 0.86 recall, 0.96 AUC) and low congestion (0.98 precision, 0.86 recall, 0.96 AUC) at a higher rate compared to disposals nearby congestion (0.72 precision, 0.88 recall, 0.88 AUC). Overall, both approaches enable a more efficient method to quantify the characteristics of congestion more effectively, thereby eliminating manual input from human coders and allowing for a future comparison between additional contextual variables, such as, seasons, rounds, and teams.

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