ABSTRACT:Residential buildings account for about one third of the final energy demand in Norway. Many costeffective measures for reducing heat losses in buildings are known and their gradual implementation may make the building sector one of the largest contributors to climate change mitigation.To estimate the sectoral reduction potential we model a complete transformation of the dwelling stock by 2050 by both renovation and re-construction with different energy standards. We propose a new dynamic stock model with an optimization routine to identify and prioritize buildings with the highest energy saving potential. The sectoral boundary is extended by including the energy and carbon footprint of the construction industry. 3Despite an expected population growth of almost 50% between 2000 and 2050, sectoral carbon emissions may drop between 30 and 40% compared to emissions in 2000 for scenarios where the stock is completely transformed by either re-construction or ambitious renovation. Due to the lower upstream impact, renovation to passive house standard allows sectoral emissions to decline faster and is therefore preferable from the viewpoint of carbon emissions.Transformation however, is not sufficient to achieve emission reduction of 50% or more as required on average to limit global warming to 2°C, because hot water generation, appliances, and lighting will dominate the sectoral footprint once the stock has been transformed. A first estimate on the impact of energy efficiency and lifestyle changes in the non-heating part of the sector reveals a maximal reduction potential of ca. 75%.

To cope with present and future challenges, a growing number of water utilities in Sweden, Europe and elsewhere initiate various forms of inter-municipal cooperations creating a new regional level of drinking water governance. In order to reach viable decisions of alternative ways forward, there is an international consensus that sustainability needs to be addressed in water supply planning, design and decision-making. There are, however, few decision aids focusing on assessing the sustainability of inter-municipal cooperations and the inter-municipal policies and interventions that regional decision-makers are faced with. This paper presents a decision support model based on a combination of cost-benefit analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis for assessing the sustainability of regional water supply interventions, including formations of inter-municipal cooperations. The proposed decision support model integrates quantitative and semi-quantitative information on sustainability criteria. It provides a novel way of presenting monetized benefits and costs, capturing utilitarian aspects of alternative interventions, with non-monetized social and environmental effects, capturing aspects based in the deontological theories of moral ethics. The model is based on a probabilistic approach where uncertainties are defined by statistical probability distributions. A case study is used to exemplify and evaluate model application in decision situations regarding regionalization, (de)centralization, source water quality and redundancy. All evaluated alternatives were expected to contribute to a slightly improved social sustainability, whereas the results were more varying in the economic and environmental domains. A structured and transparent treatment of uncertainties facilitates a better understanding of the results as well as communication between decision-makers, stakeholders and the community.

Several countries promote a regionalization of the drinking water sector; however, few decision support tools are adapted to the intermunicipal level to aid in regional decisions. The aim of this paper is to describe and demonstrate a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis approach to assess the societal effects of regional water supply interventions to constitute support for decision makers. A special focus is given to the quantification of effects on consumers' health, water supply reliability, and operation and maintenance costs. The uncertainties of the quantified values are represented by probability distribution functions and analyzed by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed approach was demonstrated in the Göteborg region in Sweden, for which five alternative interventions were evaluated. In conclusion, the proposed approach facilitates the identification and prioritization of societal effects so that costs and benefits normally overlooked in evaluation processes can be explicitly considered and addressed. The paper provides a transparent handling of uncertainties and enables a structured approach to improve decision makers' ability in making informed choices on regional water supply alternatives.

Access to a reliable water supply is central for a well-functioning society. However, water supply systems are subject to a wide range of threats which may affect their ability to provide water to society. This paper presents a novel risk assessment approach that enables thorough analyses of economic losses and associated uncertainties under a range of water supply disruption scenarios. The purpose is to avoid sub-optimization when prioritizing between risk reduction measures, by integrating the full range of possible outcomes from low to high probability events. By combining risk analysis with cost-benefit analysis, additional information is provided on measures for leveraging investments in managing and reducing the risks. This enables the identification of the most economically profitable risk reduction alternatives and enables decision makers to build strategic capacity for operating in difficult and uncertain futures. The presented approach is exemplified on the island of Gotland, one of the most water scarce areas of Sweden.

As water serves as a necessary and often irreplaceable input in a range of goods and services, a disruption in water supply can cause lost production and sales for businesses. Thus, large benefits may be generated by reducing the risk of water disruptions. To enable selection of economically viable risk mitigation measures, the investment costs should be weighed against the benefits of risk mitigation. Consequently, quantitative estimates of the consequences of disruptions need to be available. However, despite the importance of water to businesses, the literature on their financial losses due to short and long-term water disruptions is still scarce. The aim of this paper is to estimate time-dependent water supply resiliency factors for economic sectors, i.e., a metric focusing on the level of output that businesses can uphold during a disruption, to contribute to better decision support for water supply planning and risk management. An online survey was used to gather data from 1405 companies in Sweden on consequences of complete and unplanned water supply outages. Results show that Food and beverage Manufacturing and Accommodation and food services are the two most severely affected sectors over all analyzed disruption durations.

As water scarcity and drought become more common, planning to avoid their consequences becomes crucial. Measures to prevent the impact of new climate conditions are expected to be extensive, costly and associated with major uncertainties. It is therefore necessary that policymakers and practitioners in both the public and private sector can compare possible mitigation measures in order to make economically rational investment decisions. For this to be successful, decision-makers need relevant decision support. This paper presents a novel approach of constructing marginal abatement cost curves for comparing water scarcity mitigation measures while taking the underlying uncertainties into account. Uncertainties in input variables are represented by probability distributions and calculations are performed using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach is applied on the island of Gotland, one of the most water-stressed parts of Sweden, to provide the first marginal abatement cost curve in Europe for water scarcity mitigation in which municipal, agricultural, industrial and household measures are compared. The results show that the agricultural measure of on-farm storage has the greatest potential to increase water availability on the island. Among municipal measures, increased groundwater extraction and desalination offer the greatest potential, although desalination is almost 25 times more costly per cubic meter. The most cost-effective measure is linked to hot water savings in the hotel industry. The approach presented provides a quantitative visualization of the financial trade-offs and uncertainties implied by different mitigation measures. It provides critical economic insights for all parties concerned and is thus an important basis for decision-making.

The Island of Gotland (3000 km 2 ), east of mainland Sweden, suffers from insufficient water availability each summer. Thin soils and lack of coherent reservoirs in the sedimentary bedrock lead to limited reservoir capacity. The feasibility of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is explored by identifying suitable areas and estimating their possible contribution to an increased water availability. MAR is compared to alternative water management measures, e.g., increased groundwater abstraction, in terms of costs and water availability potential. Results from GIS analyses of infiltration areas and groundwater storage, respectively proximity to surface water sources and surface water storage were classified into three categories of MAR suitability. An area of ca 7700 ha (2.5% of Gotland) was found to have good local conditions for MAR and an area of ca 22,700 ha (7.5% of Gotland) was found to have moderate local conditions for MAR. These results reveal the MAR potential on Gotland. The water supply potential of MAR in existing well fields was estimated to be about 35% of the forecasted drinking water supply and 7% of the total water demand gap in year 2045. It is similar in costs and water supply potential to increased surface water extraction.

October 18, 2022, marks the 50th anniversary of the passage of the federal Clean Water Act (CWA) in the United States. To commemorate this anniversary we will explore challenges and impacts of water laws in our age and discuss how these laws affect us and the water resources they protect together with Stefano Burchi (International Association of Water Law), Marleen van Rijswick (Utrecht University) and Noah Hall (Wayne State University).