Economic crisis and labour force transition to inactivity: a comparative study in German rural and urban areasThis study analyses the determinants of labour force transition to inactivity in the German labour market. Using German Labour Force Survey data the infl uence on the transition fl ow to inactivity of factors such as age, education, marital status, sex and registration with the public employment service are examined. We present estimates of degree of urbanisation-specifi c multinominal logit models to analyse the determinants of individuals' transition probabilities in rural and urban areas. By comparing the infl uence of the factors that affect transition to inactivity before (2002-07) and during (2008-09) the global economic crisis, this paper contributes to the general understanding of transitional labour market fl ow dynamics during the crisis period. The fi ndings suggest that during the crisis period education level and marital status have had different impacts in rural and urban regions on the transition to inactivity. While these two factors infl uenced the transition to inactivity before the crisis, their effect has been stronger during it. Additionally the results suggest that the interaction of individuals with institutional settings (e.g. registration with the public employment service) have to be taken into account when designing active labour market policy measures, especially during crisis periods. Knowledge about the infl uence of these factors on the transition to inactivity, and their different effects in rural and urban areas, provides important information for designing policies aiming to reduce the transition to inactivity during crisis periods.
This paper shows how agent-based stochastic approaches can provide a complementary and more flexible approach to study investment incentives and price dynamics in a real options framework. We particularly study the case of two-stage production chains in which one sector produces an intermediate product and the other the final product, and the intermediate product is traded on the spot market. An agent-based competitive model using a genetic algorithm allows us to explicitly model the behaviors and interactions of the firms competing in each subsector and trading the intermediate product with each other on a spot market, and optimal investment strategies can be identified.
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