This study (i) investigates the debt-growth nexus and the non-linearity issue using panel dynamic ordinary least squares estimations and threshold dynamics in 13 Caribbean countries, (ii) calibrates an optimal debt/GDP ratio for each country using a modified Blanchard (1983) exercise, and (iii) tests the crowding out hypothesis by examining the debt-investment link. The empirical results support the view that there is a non-linear relationship between debt and growth. The findings suggest that there is a global tipping point for the debt/GDP ratio of 61 percent beyond which debt adversely impacts growth and investment. At the country level, the results show marked divergence between actual debt/GDP ratios and the calibrated optimal ratios. The empirical findings have policy relevance for Caribbean countries that are challenged by persistent high debt and low growth in the context where development is financed largely by debt accumulation.
This study examines the relationship between the ratio of government expenditure to gross domestic product and economic activity by investigating the empirical validity of Wagner’s law in selected Caribbean countries. Additionally, the study tests the ratchet hypothesis by searching for evidence of asymmetry in public spending over the business cycle. It narrows a gap in the Caribbean literature by (1) explicitly considering population structure in the empirical investigation of Wagner’s Law and (2) utilizing advanced econometrics techniques that incorporate nonlinearity in testing causality. The study finds no empirical support for Wagner’s Law, with and without population structure taken into account. However, the ratchet hypothesis is validated. The findings provide useful information for policy makers that can help broaden their understanding of the relationship between government spending and national income, which could aid policy formulation.
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