Infectious diseases are emerging globally at an unprecedented rate while global food demand is projected to increase sharply by 2100. Here, we synthesize the pathways by which projected agricultural expansion and intensification will influence human infectious diseases and how human infectious diseases might likewise affect food production and distribution. Feeding 11 billion people will require substantial increases in crop and animal production that will expand agricultural use of antibiotics, water, pesticides and fertilizer, and contact rates between humans and both wild and domestic animals, all with consequences for the emergence and spread of infectious agents. Indeed, our synthesis of the literature suggests that, since 1940, agricultural drivers were associated with >25% of all -and >50% of zoonotic -infectious diseases that emerged in humans, proportions that will likely increase as agriculture expands and intensifies. We identify agricultural and disease management and policy actions, and additional research, needed to address the public health challenge posed by feeding 11 billion people.
An enteric virus surrogate and reliable domestic wastewater tracer is needed to manage microbial quality of food and water as (waste)water reuse becomes more prevalent in response to population growth, urbanization, and climate change. Pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV), a plant pathogen found at high concentrations in domestic wastewater, is a promising surrogate for enteric viruses that has been incorporated into over 29 water- and food-related microbial quality and technology investigations around the world. This review consolidates the available literature from across disciplines to provide guidance on the utility of PMMoV as either an enteric virus surrogate and/or domestic wastewater marker in various situations. Synthesis of the available research supports PMMoV as a useful enteric virus process indicator since its high concentrations in source water allow for identifying the extent of virus log-reductions in field, pilot, and full-scale (waste)water treatment systems. PMMoV reduction levels during many forms of wastewater treatment were less than or equal to the reduction of other viruses, suggesting this virus can serve as an enteric virus surrogate when evaluating new treatment technologies. PMMoV excels as an index virus for enteric viruses in environmental waters exposed to untreated domestic wastewater because it was detected more frequently and in higher concentrations than other human viruses in groundwater (72.2%) and surface waters (freshwater, 94.5% and coastal, 72.2%), with pathogen co-detection rates as high as 72.3%. Additionally, PMMoV is an important microbial source tracking marker, most appropriately associated with untreated domestic wastewater, where its pooled-specificity is 90% and pooled-sensitivity is 100%, as opposed to human feces where its pooled-sensitivity is only 11.3%. A limited number of studies have also suggested that PMMoV may be a useful index virus for enteric viruses in monitoring the microbial quality of fresh produce and shellfish, but further research is needed on these topics. Finally, future work is needed to fill in knowledge gaps regarding PMMoV's global specificity and sensitivity.
Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease that ranks among the most important water-based diseases of humans in developing countries. Increased prevalence and spread of human schistosomiasis to non-endemic areas has been consistently linked with water resource management related to agricultural expansion. However, the role of agrochemical pollution in human schistosome transmission remains unexplored, despite strong evidence of agrochemicals increasing snail-borne diseases of wildlife and a projected 2- to 5-fold increase in global agrochemical use by 2050. Using a field mesocosm experiment, we show that environmentally relevant concentrations of fertilizer, a herbicide, and an insecticide, individually and as mixtures, increase densities of schistosome-infected snails by increasing the algae snails eat and decreasing densities of snail predators. Epidemiological models indicate that these agrochemical effects can increase transmission of schistosomes. Identifying agricultural practices or agrochemicals that minimize disease risk will be critical to meeting growing food demands while improving human wellbeing.
Temperature constrains the transmission of many pathogens. Interventions that target temperature-sensitive life stages, such as vector control measures that kill intermediate hosts, could shift the thermal optimum of transmission, thereby altering seasonal disease dynamics and rendering interventions less effective at certain times of the year and with global climate change. To test these hypotheses, we integrated an epidemiological model of schistosomiasis with empirically determined temperature-dependent traits of the human parasite Schistosoma mansoni and its intermediate snail host (Biomphalaria spp.). We show that transmission risk peaks at 21.7 °C (Topt), and simulated interventions targeting snails and free-living parasite larvae increased Topt by up to 1.3 °C because intervention-related mortality overrode thermal constraints on transmission. This Topt shift suggests that snail control is more effective at lower temperatures, and global climate change will increase schistosomiasis risk in regions that move closer to Topt. Considering regional transmission phenologies and timing of interventions when local conditions approach Topt will maximize human health outcomes.
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