Combined data sets of InSAR and GPS allow us to observe surface deformation in volcanic settings. However, at the vast majority of volcanoes, a detailed 3-D structure that could guide the modelling of deformation sources is not available, due to the lack of tomography studies, for example. Therefore, volcano ground deformation due to magma movement in the subsurface is commonly modelled using simple point (Mogi) or dislocation (Okada) sources, embedded in a homogeneous, isotropic and elastic half-space. When data sets are too complex to be explained by a single deformation source, the magmatic system is often represented by a combination of these sources and their displacements fields are simply summed. By doing so, the assumption of homogeneity in the half-space is violated and the resulting interaction between sources is neglected. We have quantified the errors of such a simplification and investigated the limits in which the combination of analytical sources is justified. We have calculated the vertical and horizontal displacements for analytical models with adjacent deformation sources and have tested them against the solutions of corresponding 3-D finite element models, which account for the interaction between sources. We have tested various double-source configurations with either two spherical sources representing magma chambers, or a magma chamber and an adjacent dyke, modelled by a rectangular tensile dislocation or pressurized crack. For a tensile Okada source (representing an opening dyke) aligned or superposed to a Mogi source (magma chamber), we find the discrepancies with the numerical models to be insignificant (<5 per cent) independently of the source separation. However, if a Mogi source is placed side by side to an Okada source (in the strike-perpendicular direction), we find the discrepancies to become significant for a source separation less than four times the radius of the magma chamber. For horizontally or vertically aligned pressurized sources, the discrepancies are up to 20 per cent, which translates into surprisingly large errors when inverting deformation data for source parameters such as depth and volume change. Beyond 8 radii however, we demonstrate that the summation of analytical sources represents adjacent magma chambers correctly.
[1] While ascending in the plumbing system of volcanoes, magma undergoes decompression at rates spanning several orders of magnitude and set by a number of factors internal and external to the volcano. Slow decompression generally results in an effusive or mildly explosive expansion of the magma, but counterexamples of sudden switches from effusive to explosive eruptive behavior have been documented at various volcanoes worldwide. The mechanisms involved in this behavior are currently debated, in particular for basaltic magmas. Here, we explore the interplay between decompression rate and vesiculation vigor by decompressing a magma analogue obtained by dissolving pine resin into acetone in varying proportions. Analogue experiments allow direct observations of the processes of bubble nucleation and growth, flow dynamics, and fragmentation that is not currently possible with magmatic systems. Our mixtures contain solid particles, and upon decompression, nucleation of acetone bubbles is observed. We find that mixtures with a high acetone content, containing smaller and fewer solid particles, experience strong supersaturation and fragment under very slow decompressions, despite having low viscosity, while mixtures with lower acetone content, with more and larger solid particles, degas efficiently without fragmentation. We interpret our results in terms of delayed bubble nucleation due to a lack of efficient nucleation sites. We discuss how a similar mechanism might induce violent, explosive expansion in volatile-rich and poorly crystalline low-silica magmas, by analogy with the behavior of rhyolitic magmas.
A critical challenge during volcanic emergencies is responding to rapid changes in eruptive behaviour. Actionable advice, essential in times of rising uncertainty, demands the rapid synthesis and communication of multiple datasets with prognoses. The 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano exemplifies these challenges: a series of explosions from 9–22 April 2021 was preceded by three months of effusive activity, which commenced with a remarkably low level of detected unrest. Here we show how the development of an evolving conceptual model, and the expression of uncertainties via both elicitation and scenarios associated with this model, were key to anticipating this transition. This not only required input from multiple monitoring datasets but contextualisation via state-of-the-art hazard assessments, and evidence-based knowledge of critical decision-making timescales and community needs. In addition, we share strategies employed as a consequence of constraints on recognising and responding to eruptive transitions in a resource-constrained setting, which may guide similarly challenged volcano observatories worldwide.
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