Investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest, a phenomenon called "equity home bias." In the absence of this bias, investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities. Therefore, consumption growth rates would tend to co-move across countries even when output growth rates do not. Empirically, however, consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates, a phenomenon I call "consumption home bias." In this paper, I discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature.
Recent research in international business cycles finds that international consumption comovements do not match the risk-sharing predictions of standard complete markets models. In this paper, I ask whether two different types of explanations can help explain this result: (1) nonseparabilities between tradables and nontradable leisure or goods and (2) the effects of capital market restrictions on consumption risk sharing. I find that risk sharing cannot be resolved by either explanation alone. However, when I allow for both nonseparabilities and certain market restrictions, risk sharing among unrestricted countries cannot be rejected. This evidence suggests that a combination of these two effects may be necessary to explain consumption risk sharing across countries.
Recent empirical studies suggest that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move together one‐for‐one in the long run, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This article shows that these results can be deceptive when the process followed by inflation shifts infrequently. We characterize the shifts in inflation by a Markov switching model. Based upon this model's forecasts, we reexamine the long‐run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation. Interestingly, we are unable to reject the hypothesis that in the long run nominal interest rates reflect expected inflation one‐for‐one.
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