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Accepted ManuscriptProjections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries K.C. Pattnayak, S.C. Kar, Mamta Dalal, R.K. Pattnayak PII:S0921-8181 (16) This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T
Projections of Annual Rainfall and Surface Temperature from CMIP5 Models over the BIMSTEC Countries
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T 2
AbstractBay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project models have been used to project the climate for the 21 st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21 st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka s...
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