Background Identifying the temporal trends of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use in both the past and the future can formulate the control strategies. Methods Data on cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use from 1990 to 2019, including mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. To analyze the temporal trends, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied. Result Deaths and DALY of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use increased year by years, but the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate declined or remained stable from 1990 to 2019 in most regions of the world. The burden of cirrhosis attributable to alcohol increased in low-middle social-development index (SDI) regions, while the burden of liver cancer increased in high-SDI regions. Eastern Europe and Central Asia have the highest burden of cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by alcohol use. Deaths and DALYs are mainly distributed in people aged 40+ years, but there is an increasing trend in people aged under 40 years. New deaths from cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use are predicted to increase in the next 25 years, but the ASDR of cirrhosis in males will increase slightly. Conclusions Although the age-standardized rate of cirrhosis and liver cancer due to alcohol use have decreased, the absolute burden increased and will continue to increase. Therefore, alcohol control measures should be further strengthened and improved through effective national policies.
Background This study aimed to evaluate the global colorectal cancer(CRC) trend and the relevant risk factors from 1990 to 2019 and for better policymaking and resource allocation. Methods Data on CRC, including incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates, were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the temporal trend of incidence, mortality and DALYs. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model(BAPC) was used to predict the future burden of CRC. Results In 2019, a total of 2.17 million CRC cases were reported worldwide, a 157% increase from 1990. In high-social demographic index (SDI) regions, the trend of age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR) tended to decrease, while the proportion of people under 50 years of age tended to increase. Although the number of deaths and DALYs increased, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate decreased. The CRC burden was growing fastest in middle-SDI regions, especially in East Asia, followed by low SDI regions. In addition, the milk intake, High-BMI and high fasting plasma glucose play a more important role in on CRC. The predicted cases and deaths in global continued to increase to 2044. And there is an upward trend in ASIR for both men and women. Conclusion In developed regions, the CRC burden continues to decrease, while the CRC burden become more and more severe in developing regions. Overall, the burden of CRC will rising in the near future. Therefore, reasonable resource allocation and prevention policies should be implemented. Developing countries needs more attention.
Background Identifying the temporal trends of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use in both the past and the future can formulated the control strategies. Methods Data on cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use from 1990 to 2019, including mortality and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In order to analysis the temporal trends, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied. Result The deaths and DALY of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use increased year by years, but the ASDR and age-standardized DALY rate declined or remained stable from 1990 to 2019 in most regions of the world. The burden of cirrhosis attributable to alcohol increased in low-middle social-development index (SDI) regions, while the burden of liver cancer increased in high SDI region. Deaths and DALYs are mainly distributed in people aged 40 + years, but there is a growing trend in people aged under 40 years. New deaths from cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use are predicted to increase in the next 25 years, but the ASDR of cirrhosis in males will increase slightly. Conclusions Although the age-standardized rate of cirrhosis and liver cancer due to alcohol use have declined, the absolute burden increased and will continue to increase. Therefore, steps against alcohol use should be further strengthened and improved through effective national policies.
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