Antarctica directly impacts the lives of more than half of the world’s population living in the coastal regions. Therefore it is highly desirable to project its climate for the future. But it is a region where the climate models have large inter-modal variability and hence it raises questions about the robustness of the projections available. Therefore, we have examined 87 global models from three modeling consortia (CMIP5, CMIP6, and NEX-GDDP), characterized their fidelity, selected a set of 10 models (MM10) performing satisfactorily, and used them to make the future projection of precipitation and temperature, and assessed the contribution of precipitation towards sea-levels. For the historical period, the multi-model mean (MMM) of CMIP5 performed slightly better than CMIP6 and was worse for NEX-GDDP, with negligible surface temperature bias of approximately 0.5°C and a 17.5% and 19% biases in the mean precipitation noted in both CMIP consortia. These biases considerably reduced in MM10, with 21st century projections showing surface warming of approximately 5.1 - 5.3°C and precipitation increase approximately 44 - 50% against ERA-5 under high-emission scenarios in both CMIP consortia. This projected precipitation increase is much less than that projected using MMM in previous studies with almost the same level of warming, implying approximately 40.0 mm/year contribution of precipitation towards sea-level mitigation against approximately 65.0 mm/year.
Earth’s orography profoundly influences its climate and is a major reason behind the zonally asymmetric features observed in the atmospheric circulation. The response of the atmosphere to orographic forcing, when idealized aqua mountains are placed individually and in pairs (180° apart) at different latitudes, is investigated in the present study using a simplified general circulation model. The investigation reveals that the atmospheric response to orography is dependent on its latitudinal position: orographically triggered stationary waves in the mid-latitudes are most energetic compared to the waves generated due to anomalous divergence in the tropics. The impact on precipitation is confined to the latitude of the orography when it is placed near the tropics, but when it is situated at higher latitudes, it also has a significant remote impact on the tropics. In general, the tropical mountains block the easterly flow, resulting in a weakening of the Hadley cells and a local reduction in the total poleward flux transport by the stationary eddies. On the other hand, the mid-latitudinal orography triggers planetary-scale Rossby waves and enhances the poleward flux transport by stationary eddies. The twin mountains experiments, which are performed by placing orography in pairs at different latitudes, show that the energy fluxes, stationary wave, and precipitation pattern are not merely the linear additive sum of individual orographic responses at these latitudes. The non-linearity in a diagnostic sense is a product interaction of flow between the two mountains, which depends on the background flow, the separation distance between mountains, and wind shear worldwide.
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