We analyze the transmission mechanism of wages to inflation within a New Keynesian business cycle model with wage rigidities and labor market frictions. Our main focus is on the channel of real wage rigidities on inflation persistence for which we find the specification of the wage bargaining process to be of crucial importance. Under the standard efficient Nash bargaining, the feedback of wage rigidities on inflation is ambiguous and depends on other labor market variables. However, under the alternative right-to-manage bargaining we find that more rigid wages translate directly into more persistent movements of aggregate inflation. Copyright (c) 2010 The Ohio State University.
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in IDENTIFYING THE INFLUENCES OF NOMINAL AND REAL RIGIDITIES IN AGGREGATE PRICE-SETTING BEHAVIORby Günter Coenen and Andrew T. LevinIn 2004 all publications will carry a motif taken from the €100 banknote. WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S N O. 4 1 8 / N OV E M B E R The Eurosystem Inflation Persistence NetworkThis paper reflects research conducted within the Inflation Persistence Network (IPN), a team of Eurosystem economists undertaking joint research on inflation persistence in the euro area and in its member countries. The research of the IPN combines theoretical and empirical analyses using three data sources: individual consumer and producer prices; surveys on firms' price-setting practices; aggregated sectoral, national and area-wide price indices. Patterns, causes and policy implications of inflation persistence are addressed.The IPN is chaired by Ignazio Angeloni; Stephen Cecchetti (Brandeis University), Jordi Galí (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra) and Andrew Levin (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) act as external consultants and Michael Ehrmann as Secretary.The refereeing process is co-ordinated by a team composed of Vítor Gaspar (Chairman), Stephen Cecchetti, Silvia Fabiani, Jordi Galí, Andrew Levin, and Philip Vermeulen. The paper is released in order to make the results of IPN research generally available, in preliminary form, to encourage comments and suggestions prior to final publication. The views expressed in the paper are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Eurosystem. C O N T E N T S Abstract 4Non-technical summary 5
This paper can be downloaded without charge from http://www.ecb.europa.eu or from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1188502. Wage Dynamics NetworkThis paper contains research conducted within the Wage Dynamics Network (WDN). The WDN is a research network consisting of economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks (NCBs) of the EU countries. The WDN aims at studying in depth the features and sources of wage and labour cost dynamics and their implications for monetary policy. The specific objectives of the network are: i) identifying the sources and features of wage and labour cost dynamics that are most relevant for monetary policy and ii) clarifying the relationship between wages, labour costs and prices both at the firm and macro-economic level.The WDN is chaired by Frank Smets (ECB). Giuseppe Bertola (Università di Torino) and Julian Messina (Universitat de Girona) act as external consultants and Ana Lamo (ECB) as Secretary.The refereeing process of this paper has been co-ordinated by a team composed of Gabriel Fagan (ECB, chairperson), Philip Vermeulen (ECB), Giuseppe Bertola, Julian Messina, Jan Babecký (CNB), Hervé Le Bihan (Banque de France) and Thomas Mathä (Banque centrale du Luxembourg).The paper is released in order to make the results of WDN research generally available, in preliminary form, to encourage comments and suggestions prior to final publication. The views expressed in the paper are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the ESCB. ECB Working Paper Series No 923August 2008 Abstract 4
This article reviews and illustrates the methodology of forecasting with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models using Bayesian methods. It discusses an algorithm for estimating the predictive distribution of the observed variables based on draws from the posterior distribution of the DSGE model parameters and simulation of future paths for the variables with the model. The article is organized as follows. Section 2 sketches the new area-wide model (NAWM) and briefly reports on its empirical implementation. Section 3 discusses how the predictive distribution of a DSGE model can be estimated and then presents the alternative forecasting models that are used in the empirical analysis. Section 4 covers the forecast evaluation of the NAWM, focusing first on point forecasts and then on density forecasts. Section 5 summarizes the main findings and concludes.
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