No abstract

Using play data from a sample of virtual live action sports betting gamblers, this study evaluates a set of classification and regression algorithms to determine which techniques are more effective in identifying probable disordered gamblers. This study identifies a clear need for validating results using players not appearing in the original sample, as even methods that use in-sample cross-validation can show substantial differences in performance from one data set to another. Many methods are found to be quite accurate in correctly identifying player types in training data, but perform poorly when used on new samples. Artificial neural networks appear to be the most reliable classification method overall, but still fail to identify a large group of likely problem gamblers. Bet intensity, variability, frequency and trajectory, as well as age and gender are noted to be insufficient variables to classify probable disordered gamblers with arbitrarily reasonable accuracy.

The modern gambling industry has, by-in-large, assumed a duty of care to minimize the risks associated with gambling, which has manifested in responsible gambling (RG) programming (e.g., educating players about the odds of success). The current study fills a void in gambling operators, regulators, and researchers ability to measure RG beliefs and behavior in their player-base, with the development and validation of the Positive Play Scale (PPS). In Study 1, we reviewed the literature and consulted 30 players as well as 10 RG experts to help generate a definition of RG beliefs and behavior that helped guide item generation. In Study 2, regular players (N = 1,551) of a Canadian provincial gambling operator completed a positive play survey. Four components from a principal components analysis (PCA) were extracted: Honesty and Control, Pre-commitment, Personal Responsibility, and Gambling Literacy. The PPS subscales were either not associated with gambling frequency or had small-to-moderate negative relationships with frequency of play for games most often associated with disordered gambling (e.g., electronic games). In Study 3 (N = 413), the factor structure of the PPS was confirmed and refined in a new sample of players. Moreover, a 1-month follow-up session demonstrated that the PPS has high test-retest reliability. The PPS is the first validated scale that reliably assesses the extent to which a consumer base has positive beliefs about gambling and gambles in a positive manner. The PPS can be used by the gambling industry to objectively assess the efficacy of their RG strategy, pinpoint specific areas for future focus, as well as examine the utility of new RG initiatives that aim to promote healthy patterns of gambling consumption. Furthermore, by examining the PPS scores for different player segments (e.g., sex, age, games played) it becomes possible to tailor RG strategy to the needs of specific players. In this way, RG strategy can be optimized by focusing resources where they will be most effective.

Studies of Internet gambling have consistently shown that online gamblers are more likely to report disordered gambling behaviour than offline gamblers. However, little research has focused on whether this is a causal relationship or whether this risk factor is capturing a relationship with one or more missing variables. To address whether there is a strong causal argument for the effect of online gambling participation on problem gambling severity, we use a secondary data method that corrects for potential omitted variable bias. Once this issue is addressed, we find that past-year participation in online gambling is related to a decrease in problem gambling severity, which is the opposite of the popular view in current literature. The estimates in this study are found to be robust to various forms of online gambling, control variables and problem gambling measurement instruments. The findings were also consistent when using a representative sample from the United Kingdom and when using an online research panel from Ontario, Canada. As a primary force against the widespread adoption of Internet gambling has been public health concern over problem gambling, this study provides evidence that such decisions should be more closely considered by policymakers.

BackgroundResponsible gambling messages are widely used as a tool to enable informed choice and encourage appropriate gambling behavior. It is generally accepted that gamblers have different levels of risk of developing gambling problems and require various harm minimization tools and resources. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that responsible gambling messages should be customized and target specific groups of gamblers. This project aimed to understand hypothesized differences between cohorts of gamblers and receive qualitative feedback on archetypal targeted messages used to increase use of responsible gambling tools.MethodsFocus groups were held to test messages for specific cohorts: young adults (18–24 years), seniors (60+ years), frequent gamblers (weekly), and gamblers of skill-based games (poker, sports betting).ResultsCohorts exhibited different preferences and responses to message archetypes. Seniors preferred messages about limit setting, whilst young adults and frequent gamblers responded to messages about their own play and expertise. Skill game gamblers were interested in the odds of winning and their own outcomes over time. However, all groups agreed that using positive, non-judgmental language in messaging is important.ConclusionsThis research makes an important contribution to the field by demonstrating that the wording of message content will likely influence the effectiveness of such messages differentially across various groups of gamblers for engaging gamblers in harm reduction tools. Guidance is provided on themes that can be used by public health marketers.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-6281-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.