Tumor recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) remains common; some studies have reported that insufficient ablative margin after RFA might contribute to HCC recurrence. The aim of this study was to investigate whether insufficient ablative safety margins determined by early computed tomography (CT) predicts HCC recurrence after RFA. This retrospective study recruited patients with a single HCC lesion after RFA in our department between May 2013 and March 2014. Early follow-up CT was performed within 7 days after RFA. An adequate ablative margin assessed by follow-up CT was defined as (maximum post-RFA CT radius)³/(maximum pre-RFA CT radius + 5 mm)³> 1. All patients in whom complete ablation was achieved underwent a CT scan every 3 months for early detection of HCC recurrence. In total, 72 patients (48 male, mean age 69.4 years) were analyzed. Of these, eight patients had local tumor progression, four had intra-hepatic distant recurrence, and two had extra-hepatic metastasis. Insufficient ablative margin, defined as an ablative volume with a safety margin of less than 5 mm, was an important predictor of local tumor progression (LTP) (p = 0.015) and overall recurrence (p = 0.012). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of an insufficient ablative margin for predicting LTP and overall recurrence were 36.4%, 97.2%, 50.0%, and 87.9%, and 46.2%, 89.7%, 42.9%, and 87.9%, respectively. An ablative volume with an ablative margin of less than 5 mm is associated with higher rates of both LTP and overall recurrence in HCC after RFA.

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