In this paper a detailed global climatology of wind-sea and swell parameters, based on the 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) wave reanalysis is presented. The spatial pattern of the swell dominance of the earth’s oceans, in terms of the wave field energy balance and wave field characteristics, is also investigated. Statistical analysis shows that the global ocean is strongly dominated by swell waves. The interannual variability of the wind-sea and swell significant wave heights, and how they are related to the resultant significant wave height, is analyzed over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. The leading modes of variability of wind sea and swell demonstrate noticeable differences, particularly in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. During the Northern Hemisphere winter, a strong north–south swell propagation pattern is observed in the Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant secular increases in the wind-sea and swell significant wave heights are found in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans.

A single-column model (SCM) is developed for representing moist convective boundary layers. The key component of the SCM is the parameterization of subgrid-scale vertical mixing, which is based on a stochastic eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux (EDMF) approach. In the EDMF framework, turbulent fluxes are calculated as a sum of the turbulent kinetic energy-based eddy-diffusivity component and a mass-flux component. The mass flux is modeled as a fixed number of steady-state plumes. The main challenge of the mass-flux model is to properly represent cumulus clouds, which are modeled as moist plumes. The solutions have to account for a realistic representation of condensation within the plumes and of lateral entrainment into the plumes. At the level of mean condensation within the updraft, the joint pdf of moist conserved variables and vertical velocity is used to estimate the proportion of dry and moist plumes and is sampled in a Monte Carlo way creating a predefined number of plumes. The lateral entrainment rate is modeled as a stochastic process resulting in a realistic decrease of the convective cloudiness with height above cloud base. In addition to the EDMF scheme, the following processes are included in the SCM: a pdf-based parameterization of subgrid-scale condensation, a simple longwave radiation, and one-dimensional dynamics. Note that in this approach there are two distinct pdfs, one representing the variability of updraft properties and the other one the variability of thermodynamic properties of the surrounding environment. The authors show that the model is able to capture the essential features of moist boundary layers, ranging from stratocumulus to shallow-cumulus regimes. Detailed comparisons, which include pdfs, profiles, and integrated budgets with the Barbados Oceanographic and Meteorological Experiment (BOMEX), Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus (DYCOMS), and steady-state large-eddy simulation (LES) cases, are discussed to confirm the quality of the present approach.

This study addresses key aspects of shallow moist convection, as simulated by a multiplume eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux (EDMF) model. Two factors suggested in the literature to be essential for the development of convective plumes are investigated: surface conditions and lateral entrainment. The model consistently decomposes the subgrid vertical mixing into convective plumes and the nonconvective environment. The modeled convection shows low sensitivity to the surface plume area. The results indicate that plume development in the subcloud layer is controlled by both surface conditions and lateral entrainment. Their impact significantly changes in the cloud layer where the surface conditions are no longer important. The development of shallow convection is dominated by the interactions between the plumes and the large-scale field and is sensitive to the representation of the variability of thermodynamic properties between the plumes. A simple two-layer model of steady-state convection is proposed to help understand the role of these processes in shaping the properties of moist convection.

A fully unified parameterization of boundary layer and moist convection (shallow and deep) is presented. The new parameterization is based on the stochastic multiplume eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux (EDMF) approach, which distinguishes between convective plumes and nonconvective mixing. The convective plumes represent both surface-forced updrafts and evaporatively driven downdrafts. The type of convection (i.e., dry, shallow, or deep) represented by the updrafts is not defined a priori, but rather depends on the near-surface updraft properties and the stochastic interactions between the plumes and the environment through lateral entrainment. Consequently, some updrafts may contribute only to the nonlocal transport within the subcloud layer, while others may condense and form shallow or even deep convection. Such a formulation is void of trigger functions and additional closures typical of modular parameterizations. The updrafts are coupled to relatively simple warm-, mixed-, and ice-phase microphysics. Each precipitating updraft forms a downdraft driven by the evaporation of detrained precipitation. The downdrafts control the development of cold pools near the surface that can invigorate convection. The new parameterization is tested in a single-column model against large-eddy simulations (LESs) for cases representing weakly precipitating marine convection and the diurnal cycle of continental deep convection. The results of these EDMF experiments compare well with the LES reference simulations. In particular, the transitions between the different dominant convection regimes are realistically simulated.

In this study, the eddy diffusivity/mass flux (EDMF) approach is used to combine parameterizations of nonprecipitating moist convection and boundary layer turbulence. The novel aspect of this EDMF version is the use of a probability density function (PDF) to describe the moist updraft characteristics. A single bulk dry updraft is initialized at the surface and integrated vertically. At each model level, the possibility of condensation within the updraft is considered based on the PDF of updraft moist conserved variables. If the updraft partially condenses, it is split into moist and dry updrafts, which are henceforth integrated separately. The procedure is repeated at each of the model levels above. The single bulk updraft ends up branching into numerous moist and dry updrafts. With this new approach, the need to define a cloud-base closure is circumvented. This new version of EDMF is implemented in a single-column model (SCM) and evaluated using large-eddy simulation (LES) results for the Barbados Oceanographic and Meteorological Experiment (BOMEX) representing steady-state convection over ocean and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) case representing time-varying convection over land. The new EDMF scheme is able to represent the properties of shallow cumulus and turbulent fluxes in cumulus-topped boundary layers realistically. The parameterized updraft properties partly account for the behavior of the tail of the PDF of moist conserved variables. It is shown that the scheme is not particularly sensitive to the vertical resolution of the SCM or the main model parameters.

Torrential streams and fast runoff are characteristic of most Slovenian rivers and extensive damage is caused almost every year by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia. Rainfallrunoff models which are tools for runoff calculation can be used for flood forecasting. In Slovenia, the lag time between rainfall and runoff is only a few hours and on-line data are used only for now-casting. Predicted precipitation is necessary in flood forecasting some days ahead. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model gives general forecasts several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with the ALADIN/SI model are available for two days ahead. Combining the weather forecasts with the information on catchment conditions and a hydrological forecasting model can give advance warning of potential flooding notwithstanding a certain degree of uncertainty in using precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. Analysis of the sensitivity of the hydrological model to the rainfall error has shown that the deviation in runoff is much larger than the rainfall deviation. Therefore, verification of predicted precipitation for large precipitation events was performed with the ECMWF model. Measured precipitation data were interpolated on a regular grid and compared with the results from the ECMWF model. The deviation in predicted precipitation from interpolated measurements is shown with the model bias resulting from the inability of the model to predict the precipitation correctly and a bias for horizontal resolution of the model and natural variability of precipitation.

A unified boundary layer and shallow convection parameterization based on a stochastic eddy-diffusivity/ mass-flux (EDMF) approach is implemented and tested in the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM). The primary goals of this work are to improve the representation of convectively driven boundary layers and the coupling between the boundary layer and cumulus regions. Within the EDMF framework the subgrid vertical fluxes are calculated as a sum of an eddy-diffusivity part, which in the current implementation is based on the approach developed by Louis in the late 1970s, and a stochastic mass-flux parameterization. The massflux parameterization is a model for both dry and moist convective thermals. Dry thermals, which represent surface-forced coherent structures in a flow, provide countergradient mixing in the boundary layer and, if conditions permit, are the roots for moist thermals. Moist thermals represent shallow convective clouds. The new parameterization implemented in a single-column model (SCM) version of NAVGEM is shown to be able to realistically simulate a variety of dry and moist convective cases. The NAVGEM SCM results are validated against large-eddy-simulation results. The skill of NAVGEM as a global weather forecasting model is considerably improved with the new EDMF parameterization. The EDMF parameterization became part of the operational NAVGEM in November 2013.

Large-eddy simulation is used to investigate the effects of cold pools driven by rain evaporation on the shallow-to-deep convection transition over land. The physically consistent methodologies are developed to obtain a time-dependent reference ensemble without cold pools and to apply interactive surface heat fluxes without modeling of surface energy and water budgets. Three different simulation ensembles are contrasted. The reference ensemble, in the spirit of one-dimensional single-column models, eliminates cold pools by horizontally homogenizing negative buoyancy production due to rain evaporation. The additional ensembles complement the reference cold-pool-free ensemble by including cold pools and by applying either interactive or prescribed surface fluxes. Contrasting these ensembles suggests possible improvements of convection parameterization in large-scale models of weather and climate. Without cold pools, the reference ensemble preserves key features of buoyancy-driven cellular convection associated with a field of convective plumes, as assumed in a typical convection parameterization. With cold pools, a significant enhancement of surface heat and moisture fluxes and about an hour delay of their daily maximum is simulated. Cold pools enhance near-surface temperature and moisture standard deviations as well as maxima of the near-surface updraft velocity. They also lead to the reduction of cloud lateral entrainment, deeper vertical development of the cloud layer, and a few-times-larger accumulated surface precipitation. Interactive surface fluxes provide a damping mechanism that noticeably suppresses all these effects. Perhaps surprisingly, cold pools do not significantly change the cloud-base convective mass flux that approximately follows the evolution of surface heat fluxes.