This study assessed the effects of currency volatility on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. An evaluation of literature on exchange rate volatility and stock markets was conducted resulting into specification of an empirical model. The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity (1.1) (GARCH) model was used in establishing the relationship between exchange rate volatility and stock market performance. The study employed monthly South African data for the period 2000 -2010. The data frequency selected ensured an adequate number of observations. A very weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market was confirmed. The research finding is supported by previous studies. Prime overdraft rate and total mining production were found to have a negative impact on Market capitalisation. Surprisingly, US interest rates were found to have a positive impact on Market capitalisation. The study recommended that, since the South African stock market is not really exposed to the negative effects of currency volatility, government can use exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market suggests that the JSE can be marketed as a safe market for foreign investors. However, investors, bankers and portfolio managers still need to be vigilant in regard to the spillovers from the foreign exchange rate into the stock market. Although there is a weak relationship between rand volatility and the stock market in South Africa, this does not necessarily mean that investors and portfolio managers need not monitor the developments between these two variables.

Informed inflation expectations facilitate the extemporisation of a proper monetary policy framework that allows for the achievement of economic objectives, among them price stability. This study used the vector autoregression model to assess the impact of crude oil prices and exchange rates on inflation expectations in South Africa. Monthly time-series data for the period July 2002 to March 2013, obtained from the electronic database of the South African Reserve Bank were used. The study obtained statistically significant results suggesting that both crude oil prices and the exchange rates have a positive impact on inflation expectations in South Africa.

In this paper, we test the Johannesburg Stock Exchange market for the existence of the random walk hypothesis using monthly time series of the All Share Index (ALSI) covering the period 2000 2011. Traditional methods, such as unit root tests and autocorrelation test, were employed first and they all confirmed that during the period under consideration, the JSE price index followed the random walk process. In addition, the ARIMA model was constructed and it was found that the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) was the model that most excellently fitted the data in question. Furthermore, residual tests were performed to determine whether the residuals of the estimated equation followed a random walk process in the series. The authors found that the ALSI resembles a series that follow random walk hypothesis with strong evidence of a wide variance between forecasted and actual values, indicating little or no forecasting strength in the series. To further validate the findings in this research, the variance ratio test was conducted under heteroscedasticity and resulted in non-rejection of the random walk hypothesis. It was concluded that since the returns follow the random walk hypothesis, it can be said that JSE, in terms of efficiency, is on the weak form level and therefore opportunities of making excess returns based on out-performing the market is ruled out and is merely a game of chance.