One of the most common causes of failures in complex systems in nature or engineering is an abrupt transition from a stable to an alternate stable state. Such transitions cause failures in the dynamic power systems. We focus on this transition from a stable to an unstable manifold for a rate-dependent mechanical power input via a numerical investigation in a theoretical power system model. Our studies uncover early transitions that depend on the rate of variation of mechanical input. Furthermore, we determine the dependency of a critical rate on initial conditions of the system. Accordingly, this knowledge of the critical rate can be used in devising an effective control strategy based on artificial intelligence (AI).
Renewable energy sources in modern power systems pose a serious challenge to the power system stability in the presence of stochastic fluctuations. Many efforts have been made to assess power system stability from the viewpoint of the bifurcation theory. However, these studies have not covered the dynamic evolution of renewable energy integrated, non-autonomous power systems. Here, we numerically explore the transition phenomena exhibited by a non-autonomous stochastic bi-stable power system oscillator model. We use additive white Gaussian noise to model the stochasticity in power systems. We observe that the delay in the transition observed for the variation of mechanical power as a function of time shows significant variations in the presence of noise. We identify that if the angular velocity approaches the noise floor before crossing the unstable manifold, the rate at which the parameter evolves has no control over the transition characteristics. In such cases, the response of the system is purely controlled by the noise, and the system undergoes noise-induced transitions to limit-cycle oscillations. Furthermore, we employ an emergency control strategy to maintain the stable non-oscillatory state once the system has crossed the quasi-static bifurcation point. We demonstrate an effective control strategy that opens a possibility of maintaining the stability of electric utility that operates near the physical limits.
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