Abstract. We use the new GLOMAP model of global aerosol microphysics to investigate the sensitivity of modelled sulfate and sea salt aerosol properties to uncertainties in the driving microphysical processes and compare these uncertainties with those associated with aerosol and precursor gas emissions. Overall, we conclude that uncertainties in microphysical processes have a larger effect on global condensation nuclei (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations than uncertainties in present-day sulfur emissions. Our simulations suggest that uncertainties in predicted sulfate and sea salt CCN abundances due to poorly constrained microphysical processes are likely to be of a similar magnitude to long-term changes in CCN due to changes in anthropogenic emissions. A microphysical treatment of the global sulfate aerosol allows the uncertainty in climate-relevant aerosol properties to be attributed to specific processes in a way that has not been possible with simpler aerosol schemes. In particular we conclude that: (1) changes in the binary H2SO4-H2O nucleation rate and condensation rate of gaseous H2SO4 cause a shift in the vertical location of the upper tropospheric CN layer by as much as 3 km, while changes in absolute concentration are relatively small; (2) uncertainties in the binary H2SO4-H2O nucleation rate have a relatively insignificant effect on boundary layer aerosol properties; (3) production of sulfate particles in power plant plumes below the scale of the model grid (which is of the order of 300 km) has the potential to change the global mean sulfate-derived CN concentration by a factor 2 or more at the surface, and changes of up to a factor 20 can occur in polluted regions; (4) predicted global mean sulfate and sea salt CCN concentrations change by 10 to 40% at the surface when several microphysical processes are changed within reasonable uncertainty ranges; (5) CCN concentrations are particularly sensitive to primary sulfate particle emissions, with global mean CCN changing by up to 40% and local concentrations changing by more than 100% when the percentage of anthropogenic SO2 emitted as particulates in plumes is changed from 0 to 5%; (6) uncertainties in CCN due to the mode of sulfate emission (i.e., the fraction of sulfur emitted as primary particles) are larger than those (~15%) caused by a ±25% change in total sulfur emissions; (7) large changes in sea spray flux have insignificant effects on global sulfate aerosol except when the mass accommodation coefficient of sulfuric acid on the salt particles is set unrealistically low.

Abstract. Simulations of Arctic denitrification using a 3-D chemistry-microphysics transport model are compared with observations for the winters 1994/1995, 1996/1997 and 1999/2000. The model of Denitrification by Lagrangian Particle Sedimentation (DLAPSE) couples the full chemical scheme of the 3-D chemical transport model, SLIMCAT, with a nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) growth and sedimentation scheme. We use observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Improved Limb Atmospheric Sounder (ILAS) satellite instruments, the balloon-borne Michelsen Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS-B), and the in situ NOy instrument on-board the ER-2. As well as directly comparing model results with observations, we also assess the extent to which these observations are able to validate the modelling approach taken. For instance, in 1999/2000 the model captures the temporal development of denitrification observed by the ER-2 from late January into March. However, in this winter the vortex was already highly denitrified by late January so the observations do not provide a strong constraint on the modelled rate of denitrification. The model also reproduces the MLS observations of denitrification in early February 2000. In 1996/1997 the model captures the timing and magnitude of denitrification as observed by ILAS, although the lack of observations north of ~67° N make it difficult to constrain the actual timing of onset. The comparison for this winter does not support previous conclusions that denitrification must be caused by an ice-mediated process. In 1994/1995 the model notably underestimates the magnitude of denitrification observed during a single balloon flight of the MIPAS-B instrument. Agreement between model and MLS HNO3 at 68 hPa in mid-February 1995 was significantly better. Sensitivity tests show that a 1.5 K overall decrease in vortex temperatures or a factor 4 increase in assumed NAT nucleation rates produce the best statistical fit to MLS observations. Both adjustments would be required to bring the model into agreement with the MIPAS-B observations. The agreement between the model and observations suggests that a NAT-only denitrification scheme (without ice), which was discounted by previous studies, must now be considered as one mechanism for the observed Arctic denitrification. The timing of onset and the rate of denitrification remain poorly constrained by the available observations.

Abstract. Denitrification of the Arctic winter stratosphere has been calculated using a 3-D microphysical model for the winters 1994/95, 1995/96, 1996/97 and 1999/2000. Denitrification is assumed to occur through the sedimentation of low number concentrations of large nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles, as observed extensively in 1999/2000. We examine whether the meteorological conditions that allowed NAT particles to grow to the very large sizes observed in 1999/2000 also occurred in the other cold winters. The results show that winter 1999/2000 had conditions that were optimum for denitrification by large NAT particles, which are a deep concentric cold pool and vortex. Under these conditions, NAT particles can circulate in the cold pool for several days, reaching several micrometres in radius and leading to a high downward flux of nitric acid. The other winters had shorter periods with optimum conditions for denitrification. However, we find that NAT particles could have grown to large sizes in all of these winters and could have caused significant denitrification. We define the quantity "closed flow area'' (the fraction of the cold pool in which air parcel trajectories can form closed loops) and show that it is a very useful indicator of possible denitrification. We find that even with a constant NAT nucleation rate throughout the cold pool, the average NAT number concentration and size can vary by up to a factor of 10 in response to this meteorological quantity. These changes in particle properties account for a high degree of variability in denitrification between the different winters. This large meteorologically induced variability in denitrification rate needs to be compared with that which could arise from a variable nucleation rate of NAT particles, which remains an uncertain quantity in models.

Abstract. Observations of gas-phase HNO3 and N2O in the polar stratosphere from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding aboard the ENVISAT satellite (MIPAS-E) were made during the cold Arctic winter of 2002/3. Vortex temperatures were unusually low in early winter and remained favourable for polar stratospheric cloud formation and denitrification until mid-January. MIPAS-E observations provide the first dataset with sufficient coverage of the polar vortex in mid-winter which enables a reasonable estimate of the timing of onset and spatial distribution of denitrification of the Arctic lower stratosphere to be performed. We use the observations from MIPAS-E to test the evolution of denitrification in the DLAPSE (Denitrification by Lagrangian Particle Sedimentation) microphysical denitrification model coupled to the SLIMCAT chemical transport model. In addition, the predicted denitrification from a simple equilibrium nitric acid trihydrate-based scheme is also compared with MIPAS-E. Modelled denitrification is compared with in-vortex NOy and N2O observations from the balloon-borne MarkIV interferometer in mid-December. Denitrification was clearly observed by MIPAS-E in mid-December 2002 and reached 80% in the core of the vortex by early January 2003. The DLAPSE model is broadly able to capture both the timing of onset and the spatial distribution of the observed denitrification. A simple thermodynamic equilibrium scheme is able to reproduce the observed denitrification in the core of the vortex but overestimates denitrification closer to the vortex edge. This study also suggests that the onset of denitrification in simple thermodynamic schemes may be earlier than in the MIPAS-E observations.