Abstract. We propose a method to compute tsunami runup heights that is based on an integration of numerical, 2-D shallow-water modelling and an analytical, 1-D long-wave runup theory. This approach provides a faster forecast of tsunami runup heights than a complicated coastal inundation model. Through simulations of potential tsunami scenarios, this approach can also be applied to long-term tsunami prediction. We tested the model by simulating the historical event in the East (Japan) Sea and found that the estimates of runup heights agreed well with the available observations.

Abstract. Abnormal storm waves cause coastal disasters along the coasts of Korean Peninsula and Japan in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) in winter, arising due to developed low pressures during the East Asia winter monsoon. The generation of these abnormal storm waves during rough sea states were studied and hindcast using an atmosphere-wave coupled modelling system. Wind waves and swell due to developed low pressures were found to be the main components of abnormal storm waves. The meteorological conditions that generate these waves are classified into three patterns based on past literature that describes historical events as well as on numerical modelling. In hindcasting the abnormal storm waves, a bogussing scheme originally designed to simulate a tropical storm in a mesoscale meteorological model was introduced into the modelling system to enhance the resolution of developed low pressures. The modelling results with a bogussing scheme showed improvements in terms of resolved low pressure, surface wind field, and wave characteristics obtained with the wind field as an input.

Data from a field survey of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami in the Sanriku area of Japan is used to plot the distribution function of runup heights along the coast. It is shown that the distribution function can be approximated by a theoretical log-normal curve. The characteristics of the distribution functions of the 2011 event are compared with data from two previous catastrophic tsunamis (1896 and 1933) that occurred in almost the same region. The number of observations during the last tsunami is very large, which provides an opportunity to revise the conception of the distribution of tsunami wave heights and the relationship between statistical characteristics and the number of observed runup heights suggested by Kajiura (1983) based on a small amount of data on previous tsunamis. The distribution function of the 2011 event demonstrates the sensitivity to the number of measurements (many of them cannot be considered independent measurements) and can be used to determine the characteristic scale of the coast, which corresponds to the statistical independence of observed wave heights

Abstract. The tsunami generated on 12 July 1993 by the Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki earthquake (M w = 7.8) brought about a maximum wave run-up of 31.7 m, the highest recorded in Japan during the 20th century, near the Monai Valley on the west coast of Okushiri Island (Hokkaido Tsunami Survey Group, 1993). To reproduce the extreme run-up height, the three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model (Flow Science, 2012), referred to here as the NH-model, has been locally applied with open boundary conditions supplied in an offline manner by the three-dimensional hydrostatic model (Ribeiro et al., 2011), referred to here as the H-model. The area of the H-model is sufficiently large to cover the entire fault region with one-way nested multiple domains. For the initial water deformation, Okada's fault model (1985) using the sub-fault parameters is applied. Three NH-model experiments have been performed, namely without islands, with one island and with two islands. The experiments with one island and with two islands give rise to values close to the observation with maximum runup heights of about 32.3 and 30.8 m, respectively, while the experiment without islands gives rise to about 25.2 m. The diffraction of the tsunami wave primarily by Muen Island, located in the south, and the southward topographic guiding of the tsunami run-up at the coast are, as in the laboratory simulation (Yoneyama et al., 2002), found to result in the extreme run-up height near Monai Valley. The presence of Hira Island enhances the diffraction of tsunami waves but its contribution to the extreme run-up height is marginal.

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