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We present a mathematical model, based on a compilation of radiocarbon dates, of the transition to the Neolithic, from about 7000 to 4000 BC in Europe. With the arrival of the Neolithic, hunting and food gathering gave way to agriculture and stock breeding in many parts of Europe; pottery-making spread into even broader areas. We use a population dynamics model to suggest the presence of two waves of advance, one from the Near East, and another through Eastern Europe. Thus, we provide a quantitative framework in which a unified interpretation of the Western and Eastern Neolithic can be developed.

ABSTRACT. Newly available radiocarbon dates show the early signs of pottery-making in the North Caspian area, the Middle-Lower Volga, and the Lower Don at 8-7 kyr cal BC. Stable settlements, as indicated by "coeval subsamples," are recognized in the Middle-Lower Volga (Yelshanian) at 6.8 kyr cal BC and the Caspian Lowland at about 6 kyr cal BC. The ages of the Strumel-Gostyatin, Surskian, and Bug-Dniesterian sites are in the range of 6.6-4.5 kyr BC, overlapping with early farming entities (StarËevo-Körös-Cri∫ and Linear Pottery), whose influence is perceptible in archaeological materials. Likewise, the 14 C-dated pollen data show that the spread of early pottery-making coincided with increased precipitation throughout the forest-steppe area.