patients. These profiles demonstrated a diurnal variation of theophylline absorption which was faster during the day. 3 Revised predictions of the profiles were generated by Bayesian analysis using a single serum theophylline concentration taken during a previous outpatient appointment. Comparing the predicted and measured profiles, the accuracy of the Bayesian method is considered more than adequate for clinical purposes. 4 The predictions produced by the revised estimates were statistically less biased and more precise than those derived by a theophylline algorithm using population data. 5 The mean prediction errors of the revised estimates of the day and night-peak drug concentrations were -0.55 mg 1-1 and -0.21 mg 1-1 whilst those of the evening and morning troughs were 1.17 mg I-1 and 0.41 mg l-1, respectively. 6 Analysis of the predictive and relative performance of the samples drawn during the profile revealed that the sample taken prior to a morning dose produced the most accurate predictions. 7 There was no statistical difference in the relative predictive performance of samples drawn up to 4 h before or 2 h after the morning dose. It is, therefore, recommended that all serum theophylline concentrations to be used in Bayesian analysis, should be drawn within this period.
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