We study the problem of identifying the source of a diffusion spreading over a regular tree. When the degree of each node is at least three, we show that it is possible to construct confidence sets for the diffusion source with size independent of the number of infected nodes. Our estimators are motivated by analogous results in the literature concerning identification of the root node in preferential attachment and uniform attachment trees. At the core of our proofs is a probabilistic analysis of Pólya urns corresponding to the number of uninfected neighbors in specific subtrees of the infection tree. We also provide an example illustrating the shortcomings of source estimation techniques in settings where the underlying graph is asymmetric.

We derive bounds for a notion of adversarial risk, designed to characterize the robustness of linear and neural network classifiers to adversarial perturbations. Specifically, we introduce a new class of function transformations with the property that the risk of the transformed functions upper-bounds the adversarial risk of the original functions. This reduces the problem of deriving bounds on the adversarial risk to the problem of deriving risk bounds using standard learning-theoretic techniques. We then derive bounds on the Rademacher complexities of the transformed function classes, obtaining error rates on the same order as the generalization error of the original function classes. We also discuss extensions of our theory to multiclass classification and regression. Finally, we provide two algorithms for optimizing the adversarial risk bounds in the linear case, and discuss connections to regularization and distributional robustness.

We formulate and analyze a novel hypothesis testing problem for inferring the edge structure of an infection graph. In our model, a disease spreads over a network via contagion or random infection, where the random variables governing the rates of contracting the disease from neighbors or random infection are independent exponential random variables with unknown rate parameters. A subset of nodes is also censored uniformly at random. Given the statuses of nodes in the network, the goal is to determine the underlying graph. We present a procedure based on permutation testing, and we derive sufficient conditions for the validity of our test in terms of automorphism groups of the graphs corresponding to the null and alternative hypotheses. Further, the test is valid more generally for infection processes satisfying a basic symmetry condition. Our test is easy to compute and does not involve estimating unknown parameters governing the process. We also derive risk bounds for our permutation test in a variety of settings, and motivate our test statistic in terms of approximate equivalence to likelihood ratio testing and maximin tests. We conclude with an application to real data from an HIV infection network.

We consider the problem of influence maximization in fixed networks for contagion models in an adversarial setting. The goal is to select an optimal set of nodes to seed the influence process, such that the number of influenced nodes at the conclusion of the campaign is as large as possible. We formulate the problem as a repeated game between a player and adversary, where the adversary specifies the edges along which the contagion may spread, and the player chooses sets of nodes to influence in an online fashion. We establish upper and lower bounds on the minimax pseudo-regret in both undirected and directed networks.

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