Measured spectral shifts due to intrinsic stellar variability (e.g., pulsations, granulation) and activity (e.g., spots, plages) are the largest source of error for extreme-precision radial-velocity (EPRV) exoplanet detection. Several methods are designed to disentangle stellar signals from true center-of-mass shifts due to planets. The Extreme-precision Spectrograph (EXPRES) Stellar Signals Project (ESSP) presents a self-consistent comparison of 22 different methods tested on the same extreme-precision spectroscopic data from EXPRES. Methods derived new activity indicators, constructed models for mapping an indicator to the needed radial-velocity (RV) correction, or separated out shape- and shift-driven RV components. Since no ground truth is known when using real data, relative method performance is assessed using the total and nightly scatter of returned RVs and agreement between the results of different methods. Nearly all submitted methods return a lower RV rms than classic linear decorrelation, but no method is yet consistently reducing the RV rms to sub-meter-per-second levels. There is a concerning lack of agreement between the RVs returned by different methods. These results suggest that continued progress in this field necessitates increased interpretability of methods, high-cadence data to capture stellar signals at all timescales, and continued tests like the ESSP using consistent data sets with more advanced metrics for method performance. Future comparisons should make use of various well-characterized data sets—such as solar data or data with known injected planetary and/or stellar signals—to better understand method performance and whether planetary signals are preserved.
If Doppler searches for Earth-mass, habitable planets are to succeed, observers must be able to identify and model out stellar activity signals. Here we demonstrate how to diagnose activity signals by calculating the magnitude-squared coherence C ˆ xy 2 ( f ) between an activity-indicator time series x t and the radial-velocity (RV) time series y t . Since planets only cause modulation in RV, not in activity indicators, a high value of C ˆ xy 2 ( f ) indicates that the signal at frequency f has a stellar origin. We use Welch’s method to measure coherence between activity indicators and RVs in archival observations of GJ 581, α Cen B, and GJ 3998. High RV-Hα coherence at the frequency of GJ 3998 b and high RV-S index coherence at the frequency of GJ 3998c, indicate that the planets may actually be stellar signals. We also replicate previous results showing that GJ 581 d and g are rotation harmonics and demonstrate that α Cen B has activity signals that are not associated with rotation. Welch’s power spectrum estimates have cleaner spectral windows than Lomb–Scargle periodograms, improving our ability to estimate rotation periods. We find that the rotation period of GJ 581 is 132 days, with no evidence of differential rotation. Welch’s method may yield unacceptably large bias for data sets with N < 75 observations and works best on data sets with N > 100. Tapering the time-domain data can reduce the bias of the Welch’s power spectrum estimator, but observers should not apply tapers to data sets with extremely uneven observing cadence. A software package for calculating magnitude-squared coherence and Welch’s power spectrum estimates is available on github.
We present new Spitzer transit observations of four K2 transiting sub-Neptunes: K2-36 c, K2-79b, K2-167b, and K2-212b. We derive updated orbital ephemerides and radii for these planets based on a joint analysis of the Spitzer, TESS, and K2 photometry. We use the EVEREST pipeline to provide improved K2 photometry, by detrending instrumental noise and K2's pointing jitter. We used a pixel-level decorrelation method on the Spitzer observations to reduce instrumental systematic effects. We modeled the effect of possible blended eclipsing binaries, seeking to validate these planets via the achromaticity of the transits (K2 versus Spitzer). However, we find that Spitzer’s signal-to-noise ratio for these small planets is insufficient to validate them via achromaticity. Nevertheless, by jointly fitting radii between K2 and Spitzer observations, we were able to independently confirm the K2 radius measurements. Due to the long time baseline between the K2 and Spitzer observations, we were also able to increase the precision of the orbital periods compared to K2 observations alone. The improvement is a factor of 3 for K2-36 c, and more than an order of magnitude for the remaining planets. Considering possible JWST observations in 1/2023, previous 1σ uncertainties in transit times for these planets range from 74–434 minutes, but we have reduced them to the range of 8–23 minutes.
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