A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modelling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43–90% (range of 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine roll-out, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths across England in 2021 will exceed those in 2020. Concerningly, VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59–74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

Surveys of microbial communities (microbiota), typically measured as relative abundance of species, have illustrated the importance of these communities in human health and disease. Yet, statistical artifacts commonly plague the analysis of relative abundance data. Here, we introduce the PhILR transform, which incorporates microbial evolutionary models with the isometric log-ratio transform to allow off-the-shelf statistical tools to be safely applied to microbiota surveys. We demonstrate that analyses of community-level structure can be applied to PhILR transformed data with performance on benchmarks rivaling or surpassing standard tools. Additionally, by decomposing distance in the PhILR transformed space, we identified neighboring clades that may have adapted to distinct human body sites. Decomposing variance revealed that covariation of bacterial clades within human body sites increases with phylogenetic relatedness. Together, these findings illustrate how the PhILR transform combines statistical and phylogenetic models to overcome compositional data challenges and enable evolutionary insights relevant to microbial communities.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.21887.001

Surveys of microbial communities (microbiota), typically measured as relative abundance of species, have illustrated the importance of these communities in human health and disease. Yet, statistical artifacts commonly plague the analysis of relative abundance data. Here, we introduce the PhILR transform, which incorporates microbial evolutionary models with the isometric log-ratio transform to allow off-the-shelf statistical tools to be safely applied to microbiota surveys. We demonstrate that analyses of community-level structure can be applied to PhILR transformed data with performance on benchmarks rivaling or surpassing standard tools. Additionally, by decomposing distance in the PhILR transformed space, we identified neighboring clades that may have adapted to distinct human body sites. Decomposing variance revealed that covariation of bacterial clades within human body sites increases with phylogenetic relatedness. Together, these findings illustrate how the PhILR transform combines statistical and phylogenetic models to overcome compositional data challenges and enable evolutionary insights relevant to microbial communities.

Marker gene sequencing of microbial communities has generated big datasets of microbial relative abundances varying across environmental conditions, sample sites and treatments. These data often come with putative phylogenies, providing unique opportunities to investigate how shared evolutionary history affects microbial abundance patterns. Here, we present a method to identify the phylogenetic factors driving patterns in microbial community composition. We use the method, “phylofactorization,” to re-analyze datasets from the human body and soil microbial communities, demonstrating how phylofactorization is a dimensionality-reducing tool, an ordination-visualization tool, and an inferential tool for identifying edges in the phylogeny along which putative functional ecological traits may have arisen.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections to date has relied heavily on RT-PCR testing. However, limited test availability, high false-negative rates, and the existence of asymptomatic or sub-clinical infections have resulted in an under-counting of the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we show how influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient surveillance data can be used to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. We found a surge of non-influenza ILI above the seasonal average in March 2020 and showed that this surge correlated with COVID-19 case counts across states. If 1/3 of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the US sought care, this ILI surge would have corresponded to more than 8.7 million new SARS-CoV-2 infections across the US during the three-week period from March 8 to March 28, 2020. Combining excess ILI counts with the date of onset of community transmission in the US, we also show that the early epidemic in the US was unlikely to have been doubling slower than every 4 days. Together these results suggest a conceptual model for the COVID-19 epidemic in the US characterized by rapid spread across the US with over 80% infected patients remaining undetected. We emphasize the importance of testing these findings with seroprevalence data and discuss the broader potential to use syndromic surveillance for early detection and understanding of emerging infectious diseases.

Due to the advent and utility of high-throughput sequencing, modern biomedical research abounds with multivariate count data. Yet such sequence count data is often extremely sparse; that is, much of the data is zero values. Such zero values are well known to cause problems for statistical analyses. In this work we provide a systematic description of different processes that can give rise to zero values as well as the types of methods for addressing zeros in sequence count studies. Importantly, we systematically review how various models perform on each type of zero generating process. Our results demonstrate that zero-inflated models can have substantial biases in both simulated and real data settings. Additionally, we find that zeros due to biological absences can, for many applications, be approximated as originating from under sampling. Beyond these results, this work provides a paired categorization scheme for models and zero generating processes to facilitate discussions and future research into the analysis of sequence count data.

PCR amplification plays an integral role in the measurement of mixed microbial communities via high-throughput DNA sequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene. Yet PCR is also known to introduce multiple forms of bias in 16S rRNA studies. Here we present a paired modeling and experimental approach to characterize and mitigate PCR NPM-bias (PCR bias from non-primer-mismatch sources) in microbiota surveys. We use experimental data from mock bacterial communities to validate our approach and human gut microbiota samples to characterize PCR NPM-bias under real-world conditions. Our results suggest that PCR NPM-bias can skew estimates of microbial relative abundances by a factor of 4 or more, but that this bias can be mitigated using log-ratio linear models.

Pediatric obesity remains a public health burden and continues to increase in prevalence. The gut microbiota plays a causal role in obesity and is a promising therapeutic target. Specifically, the microbial production of short-chain fatty acids (SCFA) from the fermentation of otherwise indigestible dietary carbohydrates may protect against pediatric obesity and metabolic syndrome. Still, it has not been demonstrated that therapies involving microbiota-targeting carbohydrates, known as prebiotics, will enhance gut bacterial SCFA production in children and adolescents with obesity (age, 10 to 18 years old). Here, we used an in vitro system to examine the SCFA production by fecal microbiota from 17 children with obesity when exposed to five different commercially available over-the-counter (OTC) prebiotic supplements. We found microbiota from all 17 patients actively metabolized most prebiotics. Still, supplements varied in their acidogenic potential. Significant interdonor variation also existed in SCFA production, which 16S rRNA sequencing supported as being associated with differences in the host microbiota composition. Last, we found that neither fecal SCFA concentration, microbiota SCFA production capacity, nor markers of obesity positively correlated with one another. Together, these in vitro findings suggest the hypothesis that OTC prebiotic supplements may be unequal in their ability to stimulate SCFA production in children and adolescents with obesity and that the most acidogenic prebiotic may differ across individuals. IMPORTANCE Pediatric obesity remains a major public health problem in the United States, where 17% of children and adolescents are obese, and rates of pediatric “severe obesity” are increasing. Children and adolescents with obesity face higher health risks, and noninvasive therapies for pediatric obesity often have limited success. The human gut microbiome has been implicated in adult obesity, and microbiota-directed therapies can aid weight loss in adults with obesity. However, less is known about the microbiome in pediatric obesity, and microbiota-directed therapies are understudied in children and adolescents. Our research has two important findings: (i) dietary prebiotics (fiber) result in the microbiota from adolescents with obesity producing more SCFA, and (ii) the effectiveness of each prebiotic is donor dependent. Together, these findings suggest that prebiotic supplements could help children and adolescents with obesity, but that these therapies may not be “one size fits all.”