Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool-and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is LUO ET AL.SOIL CARBON MODELING 40 PUBLICATIONS

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.

Abstract. Terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed roughly 30 % of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions over the past decades, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling and experimental and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under global change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production, NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is timedependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, which is the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times.Moreover, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a threedimensional (3-D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. In addition, the physical emulators make data assimilation computationPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 146Y. Luo et al.: Land carbon storage dynamics ally feasible so that both C flux-and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. Overall, this new mathematical framework offers new approaches to understanding, evaluating, diagnosing, and improving land C cycle models.

The sign and magnitude of permafrost carbon (C)-climate feedback are highly uncertain due to the limited understanding of the decomposability of thawing permafrost and relevant mechanistic controls over C release. Here, by combining aerobic incubation with biomarker analysis and a three-pool model, we reveal that C quality (represented by a higher amount of fast cycling C but a lower amount of recalcitrant C compounds) and normalized CO 2 -C release in permafrost deposits were similar or even higher than those in the active layer, demonstrating a high vulnerability of C in Tibetan upland permafrost. We also illustrate that C quality exerts the most control over CO 2 -C release from the active layer, whereas soil microbial abundance is more directly associated with CO 2 -C release after permafrost thaw. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating microbial properties into Earth System Models when predicting permafrost C dynamics under a changing environment.

Soil properties, such as clay content, are hypothesized to control decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC). However, these hypotheses of soil property-C decomposition relationships have not been explicitly tested at large spatial scales. Here, we used a data-assimilation approach to evaluate the roles of soil properties and environmental factors in regulating decomposition of SOC. A three-pool (active, slow, and passive) C-cycling model was optimally fitted with 376 published laboratory incubation data from soils acquired from 73 sites with mean annual temperature ranging from-15 to 26 o C. Our results showed that soil physical and chemical properties regulated decomposition rates of the active and the slow C pools. Decomposition rates were lower for soils with high clay content, high field water holding capacity (WHC), and high C:N ratio. Multifactor regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses showed that clay content was the most important variable in regulating decomposition of SOC. In contrast to the active and slow C pools, soil properties or environmental factors had little effect on the decomposition of the passive C pool. Our results show inverse soil property-C decomposition relationships and quantitatively evaluate the essential roles of soil texture (clay content) in controlling decomposition of SOC at a large spatial scale. The results may help model development and projection of changes in terrestrial C sequestration in future.

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The nitrogen (N) cycle has the potential to regulate climate change through its influence on carbon (C) sequestration. Although extensive research has explored whether or not progressive N limitation (PNL) occurs under CO 2 enrichment, a comprehensive assessment of the processes that regulate PNL is still lacking. Here, we quantitatively synthesized the responses of all major processes and pools in the terrestrial N cycle with meta-analysis of CO 2 experimental data available in the literature. The results showed that CO 2 enrichment significantly increased N sequestration in the plant and litter pools but not in the soil pool, partially supporting one of the basic assumptions in the PNL hypothesis that elevated CO 2 results in more N sequestered in organic pools. However, CO 2 enrichment significantly increased the N influx via biological N fixation and the loss via N 2 O emission, but decreased the N efflux via leaching. In addition, no general diminished CO 2 fertilization effect on plant growth was observed over time up to the longest experiment of 13 years. Overall, our analyses suggest that the extra N supply by the increased biological N fixation and decreased leaching may potentially alleviate PNL under elevated CO 2 conditions in spite of the increases in plant N sequestration and N 2 O emission. Moreover, our syntheses indicate that CO 2 enrichment increases soil ammonium (NH + 4 ) to nitrate (NO − 3 ) ratio. The changed NH + 4 /NO − 3 ratio and subsequent biological processes may result in changes in soil microenvironments, above-belowground community structures and associated interactions, which could potentially affect the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles. In addition, our data synthesis suggests that more long-term studies, especially in regions other than temperate ones, are needed for comprehensive assessments of the PNL hypothesis.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

Quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition under warming is critical to predict carbon-climate feedbacks. According to the substrate regulating principle, SOC decomposition would decrease as labile SOC declines under field warming, but observations of SOC decomposition under warming do not always support this prediction. This discrepancy could result from varying changes in SOC components and soil microbial communities under warming. This study aimed to determine the decomposition of SOC components with different turnover times after subjected to long-term field warming and/or root exclusion to limit C input, and to test whether SOC decomposition is driven by substrate lability under warming. Taking advantage of a 12-year field warming experiment in a prairie, we assessed the decomposition of SOC components by incubating soils from control and warmed plots, with and without root exclusion for 3 years. We assayed SOC decomposition from these incubations by combining inverse modeling and microbial functional genes during decomposition with a metagenomic technique (GeoChip). The decomposition of SOC components with turnover times of years and decades, which contributed to 95% of total cumulative CO respiration, was greater in soils from warmed plots. But the decomposition of labile SOC was similar in warmed plots compared to the control. The diversity of C-degradation microbial genes generally declined with time during the incubation in all treatments, suggesting shifts of microbial functional groups as substrate composition was changing. Compared to the control, soils from warmed plots showed significant increase in the signal intensities of microbial genes involved in degrading complex organic compounds, implying enhanced potential abilities of microbial catabolism. These are likely responsible for accelerated decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates. Overall, the shifted microbial community induced by long-term warming accelerates the decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates and thus amplify the positive feedback to climate change.