Background-Calcific aortic valve disease is common in the elderly, is correlated with common cardiovascular risk factors, and is associated with increased cardiovascular event risk; however, whether metabolic syndrome is associated with an increased prevalence of aortic valve calcium (AVC) is not known.

Background The presence and extent of coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Few studies have evaluated interactions or independent incremental risk for coronary and thoracic aortic calcification (TAC). The independent predictive value of TAC for CHD events is not well-established. Methods This study used risk factor and computed tomography scan data from 6,807 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Using the same images for each participant, TAC and CAC were each computed using the Agatston method. The study subjects were free of incident CHD at entry into the study. Results The mean age of the study population (n=6807) was 62±10 years (47% males). At baseline, the prevalence of TAC and CAC was 28 % (1,904/6,809) and 50% (3393/6809), respectively. Over 4.5±0.9 years, a total of 232 participants (3.41%) had CHD events, of which 132 (1.94%) had a hard event (myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or CHD death). There was a significant interaction between gender and TAC for CHD events (p<0.05). Specifically, in women, the risk of all CHD event was nearly 3-fold greater among those with any TAC (hazard ratio: 3.04, 95% CI; 1.60–5.76). After further adjustment for increasing CAC score, this risk was attenuated but remained robust (HR: 2.15, 95% CI: 1.10–4.17). Conversely, there was no significant association between TAC and incident CHD in men. In women, the likelihood ratio chi square statistics indicate that the addition of TAC contributed significantly to predicting incident CHD event above that provided by traditional risk factors alone (chi square= 12.44, p=0.0004) as well as risk factors + CAC scores (chi square= 5.33, p=0.02) . On the other hand, addition of TAC only contributed in the prediction of hard CHD events to traditional risk factors (chi-square=4.33, p=0.04) in women, without contributing to the model containing both risk factors and CAC scores (chi square=1.55, p=0.21). Conclusion Our study indicates that TAC is a significant predictor of future coronary events only in women, independent of CAC. On studies obtained for either cardiac or lung applications, determination of TAC may provide modest supplementary prognostic information in women with no extra cost or radiation.

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Aortic valve calcium (AVC) is common among older adults and shares epidemiologic and histopathologic similarities to atherosclerosis. However, prospective studies have failed to identify meaningful risk-associations with incident ("new") AVC or its progression. In this study, AVC was quantified from serial computed tomography (CT) images in 5,880 participants (aged 45-84 years) of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, using Agatston methodology. Multivariate backwards selection modeling was used to identify risk factors for incident AVC and AVC progression. During a mean follow up of 2.4±0.9 years, 210 subjects (4.0%) developed incident AVC. The incidence rate (mean 1.7 %/year) increased significantly with age (p<0.001). Risk factors for incident AVC included age, male gender, BMI, current smoking, and the use of lipid lowering and antihypertensive medications. Among those with AVC at baseline, the median rate of AVC progression was 2 Agatston units/year 37]. Baseline Agatston score was a strong, independent predictor of progression, especially among those with high calcium scores at baseline. In conclusion, in this ethnically diverse, pre-clinical cohort, the rate of incident AVC a significantly with age. Incident AVC risk was associated with several traditional cardiovascular risk factors, specifically age, male gender, BMI, current smoking, and the use of both antihypertensive and lipid lowering medications. AVC progression risk was associated with male gender and the baseline Agatston score. Additional research is needed to determine if age-and stage-specific mechanisms underlie risk for AVC progression. Drs. Owens, Katz and O'Brien had full access to the data and take responsibility for its integrity. All authors have read and approve the manuscript as submitted.The authors thank Susan Larsen for assistance in manuscript preparation and the other investigators, staff, and participants of the MESA study for their valuable contributions. A full list of participating MESA investigators and institutions can be found at http://www.mesa-nhlbi.org.Financial Disclosure: Dr. Budoff has received honoraria from and is on the speakers' bureau of General Electric. Dr. O'Brien has received honoraria from and is on the speakers' bureaus of AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Merck.