The dairy industry accounts for 9-14% of East Africa's agricultural gross development product. Due to lack of milk cooling facilities, dairy farmers in areas without access to reliable grid electricity face problems of high milk spoilage and limited access to formal markets, which limits their income and standard of living. This article examines the economic viability for a number of configurations of off-grid solar, wind, biomass and biogas based milk-cooling systems serving a community in Tanzania. Key risk factors having the greatest impact on system viability are identified and a stochastic approach, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation is employed to determine the risk-adjusted economic performance of the project. The results indicate that biogas based systems offer the most viable option, with an internal rate of return of around 25%, a net present value of around $9,000 and a projected increase in farmers' monthly income of at least 78%. Despite specific risk factors, the 300-liter cooling system had an 82% probability of a positive net present value. However, larger system cooling capacities have a significant likelihood of a financial loss. Consequently, risk mitigation strategies designed to increase the probability of economic success are proposed.
For domestic consumers in the rural areas of northern Kenya, as in other developing countries, the typical source of electrical supply is diesel generators. However, diesel generators are associated with both CO2 emissions, which adversely affect the environment and increase diesel fuel prices, which inflate the prices of consumer goods. The Kenya government has taken steps towards addressing this issue by proposing The Hybrid Mini-Grid Project, which involves the installation of 3 MW of wind and solar energy systems in facilities with existing diesel generators. However, this project has not yet been implemented. As a contribution to this effort, this study proposes, simulates and analyzes five different configurations of hybrid energy systems incorporating wind energy, solar energy and battery storage to replace the stand-alone diesel power systems servicing six remote villages in northern Kenya. If implemented, the systems proposed here would reduce Kenya's dependency on diesel fuel, leading to reductions in its carbon footprint. This analysis confirms the feasibility of these hybrid systems with many configurations being profitable. A Multi-Attribute Trade-Off Analysis is employed to determine the best hybrid system configuration option that would reduce diesel fuel consumption and jointly minimize CO2 emissions and net present cost. This analysis determined that a wind-diesel-battery configuration consisting of two 500 kW turbines, 1200 kW diesel capacity and 95,040 Ah battery capacity is the best option to replace a 3200 kW stand-alone diesel system providing electricity to a village with a peak demand of 839 kW. It has the potential to reduce diesel fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by up to 98.8%.
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