Climate change is causing warmer and more variable temperatures as well as physical flux in natural populations, which will affect the ecology and evolution of infectious disease epidemics. Using replicate seminatural populations of a coevolving freshwater invertebrate-parasite system (host: Daphnia magna, parasite: Pasteuria ramosa), we quantified the effects of ambient temperature and population mixing (physical flux within populations) on epidemic size and population health. Each population was seeded with an identical suite of host genotypes and dose of parasite transmission spores. Biologically reasonable increases in environmental temperature caused larger epidemics, and population mixing reduced overall epidemic size. Mixing also had a detrimental effect on host populations independent of disease. Epidemics drove parasite-mediated selection, leading to a loss of host genetic diversity, and mixed populations experienced greater evolution due to genetic drift over the season. These findings further our understanding of how diversity loss will reduce the host populations' capacity to respond to changes in selection, therefore stymying adaptation to further environmental change.

Epidemics are engines for host‐parasite coevolution, where parasite adaptation to hosts drives reciprocal adaptation in host populations. A key challenge is to understand whether parasite adaptation and any underlying evolution and coevolution is repeatable across ecologically realistic populations that experience different environmental conditions, or if each population follows a completely unique evolutionary path. We established twenty replicate pond populations comprising an identical suite of genotypes of crustacean host, Daphnia magna, and inoculum of their parasite, Pasteuria ramosa. Using a time‐shift experiment, we compared parasite infection traits before and after epidemics and linked patterns of parasite evolution with shifts in host genotype frequencies. Parasite adaptation to the sympatric suite of host genotypes came at a cost of poorer performance on foreign genotypes across populations and environments. However, this consistent pattern of parasite adaptation was driven by different types of frequency‐dependent selection that was contingent on an ecologically relevant environmental treatment (whether or not there was physical mixing of water within ponds). In unmixed ponds, large epidemics drove rapid and strong host‐parasite coevolution. In mixed ponds, epidemics were smaller and host evolution was driven mainly by the mixing treatment itself; here, host evolution and parasite evolution were clear, but coevolution was absent. Population mixing breaks an otherwise robust coevolutionary cycle. These findings advance our understanding of the repeatability of (co)evolution across noisy, ecologically realistic populations.

Host-parasite interactions often fuel coevolutionary change. However, parasitism is one of a myriad of possible ecological interactions in nature. Biotic (e.g., predation) and abiotic (e.g., temperature) variation can amplify or dilute parasitism as a selective force on hosts and parasites, driving population variation in (co)evolutionary trajectories. We dissected the relationships between wider ecology and coevolutionary trajectory using 16 ecologically complex Daphnia magna-Pasteuria ramosa ponds seeded with an identical starting host (Daphnia) and parasite (Pasteuria) population. We show, using a time-shift experiment and outdoor population data, how multivariate biotic and abiotic ecological differences between ponds caused coevolutionary divergence. Wider ecology drove variation in host evolution of resistance, but not parasite infectivity; parasites subsequently coevolved in response to the changing complement of host genotypes, such that parasites adapted to historically resistant host genotypes. Parasitism was a stronger interaction for the parasite than for its host, likely because the host is the principal environment and selective force, whereas for hosts, parasite-mediated selection is one of many sources of selection. Our findings reveal the mechanisms through which wider ecology creates coevolutionary hotspots and coldspots in biologically realistic arenas of host-parasite interaction, and sheds light on how the ecological theatre can affect the (co)evolutionary play.

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Epidemics commonly exert parasite-mediated selection and cause declines in host population genetic diversity. This can lead to evolution of resistance in the long term and smaller subsequent epidemics. Alternatively, the loss of genetic diversity can increase host vulnerability to future disease spread and larger future epidemics. Matters are made more complex by the fact that a great many host organisms produce diapausing life stages in response to environmental change (often as a result of sexual reproduction; e.g. plant seeds and invertebrate resting eggs). These diapausing stages can disrupt the relationship between past epidemics, host genetic diversity and future epidemics because they allow host dispersal through time. Specifically, temporally dispersing hosts avoid infection and thus selection from contemporary parasites, and also archive genetic variation for the future. We studied 80 epidemics in 20 semi-natural populations of the temporally dispersing crustacean Daphnia magna and its sterilizing bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa , and half of these populations experienced a simulated environmental disturbance treatment. We found that early initiation of diapause relative to the timing of the epidemic led to greater host genetic diversity and reduced epidemic size in the subsequent year, but this was unaffected by environmental disturbance.