Abstract. In recent years, the growth of marine traffic in ports and their surroundings raise the traffic and security control problems and increase the workload for traffic control operators. The automated identification system of vessel movement generates huge amounts of data that need to be analysed to make the proper decision. Thus, rapid self-learning algorithms for the decision support system have to be developed to detect the abnormal vessel movement in intense marine traffic areas. The paper presents a new self-learning adaptive classification algorithm based on the combination of a self-organizing map (SOM) and a virtual pheromone for abnormal vessel movement detection in maritime traffic. To improve the quality of classification results, Mexican hat neighbourhood function has been used as a SOM neighbourhood function. To estimate the classification results of the proposed algorithm, an experimental investigation has been performed using the real data set, provided by the Klaipėda seaport and that obtained from the automated identification system. The results of the research show that the proposed algorithm provides rapid self-learning characteristics and classification.

The automated identification system of vessel movements receives a huge amount of multivariate, heterogeneous sensor data, which should be analyzed to make a proper and timely decision on vessel movements. The large number of vessels makes it difficult and time-consuming to detect abnormalities, thus rapid response algorithms should be developed for a decision support system to identify abnormal movements of vessels in areas of heavy traffic. This paper extends the previous study on a self-organizing map application for processing of sensor stream data received by the maritime automated identification system. The more data about the vessel’s movement is registered and submitted to the algorithm, the higher the accuracy of the algorithm should be. However, the task cannot be guaranteed without using an effective retraining strategy with respect to precision and data processing time. In addition, retraining ensures the integration of the latest vessel movement data, which reflects the actual conditions and context. With a view to maintaining the quality of the results of the algorithm, data batching strategies for the neural network retraining to detect anomalies in streaming maritime traffic data were investigated. The effectiveness of strategies in terms of modeling precision and the data processing time were estimated on real sensor data. The obtained results show that the neural network retraining time can be shortened by half while the sensitivity and precision only change slightly.

Increasing intensity in maritime traffic pushes the requirement in better preventionoriented incident management system. Observed regularities in data could help to predict vessel movement from previous vessels trajectory data and make further movement predictions under specific traffic and weather conditions. However, the task is burden by the fact that the vessels behave differently in different geographical sea regions, sea ports, and their trajectories depends on the vessel type as well. The model must learn spatio-temporal patterns representing vessel trajectories and should capture vessel’s position relation to both space and time. The authors of the paper proposes new unsupervised trajectory prediction with prediction regions at arbitrary probabilities using two methods: LSTM prediction region learning and wild bootstrapping. Results depict that both the autoencoder-based and wild bootstrapping region prediction algorithms can predict vessel trajectory and be applied for abnormal marine traffic detection by evaluating obtained prediction region in an unsupervised manner with desired prediction probability.

The growing number of COVID-19 cases puts pressure on healthcare services and public institutions worldwide. The pandemic has brought much uncertainty to the global economy and the situation in general. Forecasting methods and modeling techniques are important tools for governments to manage critical situations caused by pandemics, which have negative impact on public health. The main purpose of this study is to obtain short-term forecasts of disease epidemiology that could be useful for policymakers and public institutions to make necessary short-term decisions. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed attention-based method combining certain data mining algorithms and the classical ARIMA model for short-term forecasts, data on the spread of the COVID-19 virus in Lithuania is used, the forecasts of epidemic dynamics were examined, and the results were presented in the study. Nevertheless, the approach presented might be applied to any country and other pandemic situations. The COVID-19 outbreak started at different times in different countries, hence some countries have a longer history of the disease with more historical data than others. The paper proposes a novel approach to data registration and machine learning-based analysis using data from attention-based countries for forecast validation to predict trends of the spread of COVID-19 and assess risks.

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