Assessment of prognosis in fulminant hepatic failure (FHF) is essential for the need and appropriate timing of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). In this study we investigated the prognostic efficacy of King's College criteria, Clichy's criteria, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease (PELD) in 120 consecutive patients with FHF. Survival with medical therapy (18%), death without OLT (15%), and receipt of a liver transplant were similar in adults (n ϭ 64) and children (n ϭ 56). MELD scores were significantly higher in patients who died compared to those who survived without OLT, both in adults (38 Ϯ 7 vs. 26 Ϯ 7, P ϭ 0.0003) and children (39 Ϯ 7 vs. 23 Ϯ 6, P ϭ 0.0004). Using logistic regression analysis in this cohort of patients, concordance statistics were significantly higher for MELD (0.95) and PELD (0.99) when compared to King's College (0.74) and Clichy's criteria (0.68). When data was analyzed in a Cox model including patients receiving transplants and censoring the time from admission, the concordance statistic for MELD (0.77) and PELD (0.79) remained significantly higher than that of King's College criteria but not higher than that of Clichy's criteria. In conclusion, this study is the first to show that MELD and PELD are superior to King's College and Clichy's criteria to assess prognosis in FHF. However, because data was generated from a single center and included a rather low number of patients who survived or died without OLT, further confirmation of our findings is required. Liver Transpl 13: 822-828, 2007.

IntroductionHepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is a vaccine-preventable disease. The most severe complication in children is fulminant hepatic failure (FHF), estimated to occur in 0.4% of cases; patients with FHF often require a liver transplant (LT). Following another outbreak of HAV infection in Argentina during 2003–2004, a one-dose HAV universal immunization (UI) program was started in 2005, resulting in a reduction in the incidence of HAV infection. We have investigated the impact of HAV UI on the trends in the occurrence of FHF and LT in children.MethodsAll pediatric cases of FHF admitted to four pediatric centers in Buenos Aires during March 1993–July 2005 were retrospectively reviewed, and data of cases during August 2005–December 2008 were collected. Information about demography, HAV infections and vaccination status, diagnostic data for FHF using the Pediatric Acute Liver Failure criteria, clinical laboratory results, encephalopathy, the severity of liver disease using the Pediatric End Stage Liver Disease score, assessment of patients on the LT waiting list using King’s College Criteria for LT, treatment given for FHF (pre- and post-transplant), and clinical outcome were collected using a case report form. The frequency and outcomes of HAV-associated FHF and LT cases before and after UI were analyzed.ResultsDuring the pre-immunization period, March 1993–July 2005, 54.6% (N = 165) of FHF cases were caused by HAV; HAV-associated FHF cases peaked during 2003–2004. During the post-immunization period, August 2005–December 2008, only 27.7% (N = 18) of FHF cases were caused by HAV infection; only one of these patients had received the HAV vaccine (one dose only). The number of HAV-associated FHF cases decreased from 2005, and no cases were reported from November 2006–December 2008. Multivariate analyses showed that the association of FHF with HAV infection rather than other etiologies decreased with increasing age (P = 0.03), UI against HAV (P = 0.002), and anti-actin antibodies (P = 0.002), and increased with increasing weight (P = 0.0004).ConclusionsThe number of children with HAV-associated FHF in Argentina has strongly decreased since the initiation of the UI program. Further monitoring is required to confirm the long-term health and economic benefits of UI against HAV infection.

APRI in this cohort of patients shows that a score >1.6 correlates with advanced fibrosis.

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