The objective of this paper is to show how Mexico's strategy of financial deregulation and liberalization set the stage for the crisis that the country suffered in December 1994. The theoretical underpinning is Post-Keynesian, and more precisely, a Minsky-inspired analytical perspective extended to the open economy. In the first section the authors carry out a theoretical discussion dealing with some Post-Keynesian theories of the business cycle. A second section is devoted to examining and identifying the stylized facts in the evolution of the Mexican economy, with special emphasis on the interaction between the financial and real variables. In the last section the authors propose a simplified model which shows how and why a strategy of financial deregulation and liberalization may lead to financial fragility and to a crisis.
El objetivo de esta investigación es conocer las relaciones que existen entre las decisiones de inversión privada, por un lado, y la recaudación por concepto del impuesto sobre la renta y el gasto público, por otro, con el propósito de contribuir al debate actual acerca del tipo de política hacendaria que se requiere en México. Se formuló un modelo econométrico tipo panel dinámico para México y algunos países latinoamericanos para el periodo 1990-2008. Se analizó también la experiencia mexicana del periodo 1986-2007 a través de un modelo de vectores autoregresivos. Los resultados del análisis empírico en todos los casos sustentan las principales hipótesis de la teoría de la demanda efectiva: el gasto público primario estimula la inversión privada (efecto atracción), mientras que los impuestos sobre la renta y al valor agregado la desestimulan pero el efecto fiscal neto es positivo. Se observó también un fuerte efecto estimulante del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) sobre la inversión privada (efecto acelerador).
The paper has two objectives. The first is to discuss whether developing countries can benefit by specializing according to their comparative advantage. The second objective is to discuss if an economy that adopts a free market policy, will in effect achieve greater economic efficiency. The author concludes that specialization according to comparative advantage would indeed benefit a country. He also argues that in an economy ruled by free competition and without governmental interference, market signals and forces are not by themselves sufficient to provide the necessary incentives to producers so that they fully use the available resources, and produce and trade according to comparative advantage. RESUMO Este artigo tem dois objetivos. O primeiro é discutir se os países em desenvolvimento podem ser beneficiados por uma especialização baseada em sua vantagem comparativa. O segundo objetivo é determinar se uma economia que adota uma política de mercado livre alcança de fato uma maior eficiência econô-mica. O autor conclui que a especialização baseada na vantagem comparativa pode realmente beneficiar o país. O autor também acredita que, numa economia onde predominam a livre competição e a ausência de interferência governamental, os indicadores e as forças de mercado não são suficientes para oferecer aos produtores os incentivos necessários para que eles utilizem os recursos disponíveis e produzam e comercializem de acordo com a vantagem comparativa.Palavras-chave: vantagem comparativa; comércio e crescimento
In this paper we analyse the recent evolution and determinants of real wages in Mexico's manufacturing sector, using theories based on the assumption of imperfect competition both in the product and in the labour markets, especially wage-bargain theory, insider-outsider and mark-up models. We show evidence that the Mexican labour market does not behave as a traditional competitive market. The proposed explanation for this fact is that some workers benefit from advantages when compared with others, so that they can get a greater share of the proceedings of the productive process. Also, we find that changes in the degree of competition in the market for output influence the behaviour of real wages.
In this paper we study the determinants of the real exchange rate (RER), analysing in particular its association with the share of wages in output. We model the behavior of the RER against the US dollar of the domestic currency of three countries: Mexico, Korea, and France. We specify econometric vector autoregression (VAR) models and find for each country a long-run relation for the RER. In the three cases, we identify a negative association between the RER and the wage share and the RER, and the difference between the domestic and the US nominal interest rate. We also find that the RER is positively associated with labor productivity in Korea and France, but negatively associated in Mexico. We then suggest theoretical reasons for the type of associations found. As a corollary, we discuss the reasons that may explain why the RER tends to return to a long-run ‘normal’ value.
on an earlier version of this paper, while making it clear that they do not necessarily share the opinions expressed here.
Las opiniones expresadas en los artículos firmados son las de los autores y no reflejan necesariamente los puntos de vista de la organización. Las denominaciones empleadas y la forma en que aparecen presentados los datos no implican, de parte de la Secretaría, juicio alguno sobre la condición jurídica de países, territorios, ciudades o zonas, o de sus autoridades, ni respecto de la delimitación de sus fronteras o límites. Notas explicativas En los cuadros dei presente trabajo se han empleado los siguientes signos: Tres puntos (...) indican que los datos faltan o no constan por separado. La raya indica que la cantidad es nula o despreciable. Un espacio en blanco en un cuadro indica que el concepto de que se trata no es aplicable. Un signo menos indica déficit o disminución, salvo que se especifique otra cosa. El punto (.) se usa para separar los decimales. La raya inclinada (/) indica un año agrícola o fiscal (por ejemplo, 1970/1971). El guión (-) puesto entre cifras que expresen años, por ejemplo 1971-1973, indica que se trata de todo el período considerado, ambos años inclusive. La palabra-toneladas" indica toneladas métricas, y la palabra "dólares", dólares de los Estados Unidos, salvo indicación contraria. Salvo indicación en contrario, las referencias a tasas anuales de crecimiento o variación corresponden a tasas anuales compuestas. Debido a que a veces se redondean las cifras, los datos parciales y los porcentajes presentados en los cuadros no siempre suman el total correspondiente. LC/G 1739-P Agosto de 1992 La autorización para reproducir total o parcialmente esta obra debe solicitarse al Secretario de la Junta de Publicaciones, Sede de las Naciones Unidas, Nueva York, N.Y. 100J7, EE.UU. Los Estados miembros y sus instituciones gubernamentales pueden reproducir esta obra sin autorización previa. Sólo se les solicita que mencionen la fuente e informen a las Naciones Unidas de tal reproducción.
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