Dual BRAF and MEK inhibition in advanced BRAF-mutated melanoma is superior to single inhibition in terms of efficacy without significant increase in toxicity. Therefore, BRAF plus MEK inhibition is expected to supersede single-agent BRAF inhibition in these patients in the near future.
Purpose
Clinical Treatment Score at 5 years (CTS5) is a prognostic tool to estimate distant recurrence (DR) risk after 5 years of endocrine therapy for postmenopausal women with oestrogen receptor-positive (ER-positive) breast cancer.
Methods
The validity of CTS5 was tested in a retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with early ER-positive breast cancer. The primary endpoint was DR in years 5–10. The primary analysis cohort consisted of postmenopausal women, with premenopausal women as a secondary analysis cohort. Cox regression models were used to determine the prognostic value of CTS5 and Kaplan–Meier curves were used with associated 10-year DR risks (%).
Results
2428 women were included with a median follow-up of 13.4 years. The CTS5 was significantly prognostic in both postmenopausal (N = 1662, HR = 2.18 95% CI (1.78–2.67)) and premenopausal women (N = 766, HR = 1.84 95% CI (1.32–2.56)). The 10-year DR risks were 2.9% (1.9–4.5), 7.2% (5.3–9.9), and 12.9% (10.0–16.7) for low, intermediate and high risk in postmenopausal women and 3.8% (2.2–6.7), 6.9% (4.4–10.8), and 11.1% (7.4–16.5) in premenopausal women, respectively. The number of observed DRs was significantly greater than expected in those predicted to be at high risk by CTS5 but this discordance was lost when those receiving more than 60 months of endocrine therapy were excluded.
Conclusions
The CTS5 demonstrated clinical validity for predicting late DR within a large cohort of unselected postmenopausal patients but less so in premenopausal patients. Calibration of the CTS5 was good in patients who did not receive extended endocrine therapy. The CTS5 low-risk cohort has risk of DR so low as to not warrant extended endocrine therapy.
514 Background: The Clinical Treatment Score at 5 years (CTS5) is a prognostic tool using clinicopathological data to estimate distant recurrence (DR) risk after 5 years of endocrine therapy for postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer. It was developed and validated in the ATAC and BIG 1-98 trials. Methods: The validity of CTS5 was tested in a retrospective cohort of unselected, non-trial patients diagnosed with early ER+ breast cancer at the Royal Marsden Hospital from 2000-2007 who were alive and distant recurrence-free at 5 years. The primary endpoint was time to late DR (5-10 years). Cox regression models were used to determine the prognostic value of CTS5 and to produce Kaplan-Meier curves with associated 10-year DR risks (%). Results: A total of 2428 women were included with a median follow-up of 9.34 years from diagnosis. The CTS5 was significantly prognostic for late DR in post- and premenopausal women (Table). Risk stratification by CTS5 of the postmenopausal cohort was comparable with the development cohort. 42.1% of postmenopausal women were categorised into the low risk group with a late DR risk of 4.9% and these women had significantly lower risk of late DR compared to those in the intermediate or high-risk groups (Table). Amongst the premenopausal cohort, 41% were categorised as low risk with a late DR risk of 4.9%. The prognostic effect of CTS5 was seen for chemotherapy treated (HR=2.26, 95% CI (1.68-3.03)) and untreated patients (HR=1.93, 95% (1.32-2.82)). Conclusions: CTS5 demonstrated clinical validity for predicting late DR within a large cohort of unselected, non-trial patients that included premenopausal women. The low risk cohort identified by the CTS5 represents a group of women whose risk of late DR is so low as to not warrant extended endocrine therapy to ten years. [Table: see text]
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